AynCzubas
Short

USD Index Down to 94.50 ?

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
39 4 0
It appears to me that the US Dollar Index             has been forming a bearish contracting triangle which started at its peak on March 19th, and based on a rough estimate of expected post-triangle thrust, there would be a subsequent, swift downward move from the present level to the 94.50 area.
AynCzubas
2 years ago
Similarly, the EUR/USD might simultaneously spike to the 1.12 - 1.13 area.
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
I need to change my view on this, since the index broke above the 98.01 level on April 8th and hit 99.99 on April 13th. That seems too high to still consider as a wave "e" of a bearish contracting triangle that I previously envisioned. Or, if it is still to be regarded as an "e" wave, it would now imply a downward post-triangle thrust starting from 99.99 down to about 96.47 -- which would mean a bounce again from just above the upward-sloping lower trendline of the triangle itself.

Given its more recent development, looking at this triangular wave structure now, it could be interpreted as having nearly completed a set of broadly segmented ABC waves, which might signify a subsequent bullish continuation rather than a bearish move, regardless whether or not additional "d" and "e" waves develop. I still consider this a 4th wave type structure, and would generally expect it to move to around my original target range of 94-95 (area of perceived 4th wave of lesser degree), though I'm not as confident about what kind of wave action might carry it there now.
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
I have posted my more recent, alternate bullish triangle idea here...
USD Index Potential Bullish Triangle Thrust
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AynCzubas
2 years ago
Well, the Dollar Index has hit the 94.50 target I initially forecast, though it didn't do so for the reason that I suspected (triangle), and in the interim I even switched to the opposing bullish view (apparent reversal of triangle wave count),

Triangles!
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