For now I focus on the 4 hour time frame where a correction might be starting soon.
I determined for different reasons the 98 and 98.5 zone as high probability reversal zones (short term).
We have FOMC on Wednesday so I will update up to that event because it seems that structure is setting up a trade for FOMC.
For intra day trading I consider the arrows on the 4 hr time frame as the high probability trades.
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Nevertheless I'm not projecting what makes sense because if the market made sense we had not as much volatility as we see every single day. So forget that and only keep it in mind when looking for levels to trade from and context why we might see spikes without follow ups. (some call it stop grabbers I call it opportunity)
Structure tells us what's next in the best possible way. If we see a third leg lower I will prepare for a buy, FOMC or not. I showed major levels if price moves higher and these levels will be important when trading FOMC.
I'll update but not share trade idea's. When I trade news events I make a very specific trade plan and adjust very fast when needed and the lag in posting might hurt others.
However I will update tomorrow and explain what I'm looking for. If the market does what I want I will get triggered during the volatility, if not I'm not in the trade and let it all settle before entering this instrument again.
I would like to see this sell opportunity before FOMC to happen (3rd leg lower), in that case I will be looking for a buy later on (probably during the event). However IF price extends higher up to FOMC I will be looking for a sell (ideally our of that zone I showed in the previous chart). If I don't see any of these two scenario's unfold the way I like it, I let it go because it can also turn into a non-event or an unclear structure up to NF. I'll will update later on today.
Daily shows 3 waves at the moment and if we don't see a new high this means that we have to focus on the bearish scenario I described in the original post (W-X-Y-X-Z).
However the 1 hour time frame makes me believe we are dealing with an ABC correction.
So the plan is simple as always, IF we see a consolidation after the bearish impulse of today, prepare to sell (which will result in another bearish break and likely a new low, below 91.90). If we see on the other hand a reversal, wait for the consolidation and prepare to buy to target a break above 97.50.
This chart has caused so much variation in EW counts. I am struggling to agree with this counts and it is similar to EW International's view. I think it fits better if you take the entire price to date from 2008 low as leading diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction (Brown on my chart) or from the 2011 low as ending diagonal also of 3-3-3-3-3 (as show in blue on my chart). Please excuse my chart as it is a bit messy.
But I agree the net out come for the intermediate term is further upside for DXY.
There is no more room to update my analyses so I will create a new post tomorrow. However look at the structure that seems to repeat itself (green boxes) and even if we make a new high on lower time frames for what I count to be wave X. I simply don't like the structure to call it an impulse (maybe an impulse for a wave C but not for an 12345 structure) Therefore keep an eye on the 1 hour time frame for clues because as long as there is no confirmation pretty much combination is possible since the dollar index is in no-mans land at the moment. So my projection is what I see based on experience but I will also focus on 1 hour time frame because experience only matters if you use it in your advantage which means keep an open mind at all time! I will emphasize that I do not disagree with any technical view that follows the rules for structure but I can't agree neither until I see more price action. In terms of trading opportunities I will also use the 1 hour time frame as explained in the original post.