Daily downtrend signal expired, in what looks like a complete 4th wave correction, down to the previous mode support, which also happens to be a previous lower degree fourth wave. Expecting dollar rallies accross the board. Minimum target here is a retest of the highest low, but it could naturally go higher if the US NFP data is good on Friday, boosting the dollar into higher highs.
Correction looks complete, but we'll know after today's fundamental event extravaganza ends:
18m US USD MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8) 1 -4.6%
48m EMU EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 3
1h 48m US USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 3 0.2% 0.9%
1h 48m US USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr) 3 0.5% 0.4%
2h 48m US USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 1 0.3% -0.3%
2h 48m US USD Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 1 -10.5%
2h 48m US USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 1 0.1% 0.1%
2h 48m US USD Export Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 1 -6.7%
3h 18m US USD Business Inventories (Mar) 1 0.2% 0.3%
3h 48m US USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (May 8) 1 0.386M -3.882M
6h 18m US USD 10-Year Note Auction 2 1.925%
11h 48m NZ NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 2 54.5
12h 3m NZ NZD Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ) (Q1) 2 1.5% 1.5%
12h 3m NZ NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1 1.6% 1.7%
12h 19m UK GBP RICS Housing Price Balance (Apr) 2 21% 21%
13h 8m JP JPY Foreign bond investment (May 8) 2 ¥185.3B
13h 8m JP JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks (May 8) 2 ¥821B
13h 8m JP JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) (Apr) 1 3.6% 3.6%
IvanLabrie
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The last two daily bars don't look convincing enough to confirm a reversal...probably a retracement before a new leg down it would seem.
EURUSD didn't drop fast enough, and USDCAD didn't rise far enough off the lows.
IvanLabrie
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It's possible the move down is 5 and not 3 part...implying that after this brief corrective rally, we have one more wave down.
claydoctor
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Or this is top or tilted double top, and we never see those highs again, until rate hike, which is needed now, but would cost the FED and our US debt way too much , so they are manipulating, faking numbers, so they can put it off as long as possible to please the markets.
claydoctor
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IOW, careful of trusting charts too much, since FED is at the wheel, doing whatever they need to.
IvanLabrie
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The whole point of me doing technical analysis is trying to figure out what these players are going to do, that news or fundamental analysis won't reveal.
I'll trust the charts for the time being.
claydoctor
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They look at the charts too, all the time, as do you and me, but... just saying usually I trust them more than I do now. Most helpful is to pull back and look at weekly, monthlies every now and then, having done that this morning, makes things a bit clearer.
IvanLabrie
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I look at monthly, weekly, daily, 4h and 1h. Sometimes I look at 1m,5m and 15m if counting waves, but not normally needed.
Good luck!