QuantitativeExhaustion

US Dollar Complex Head-and-Shoulders with Double Chin

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
4216 13 23
A lot of people are betting that the EUR/USD             pair follow through with a 1.40+ target price. I do believe these traders will be correct, but it looks like we have one more bump in the road before the dollar fetches a 73.00 handle / EUR/USD             1.40+.

So I put a chart together to describe the possibility of what is going to happen in the next several months. What I found was a complex head and shoulders pattern.

US Dollar            
Complex Head-and-Shoulders

Characteristic

Price trend: Upward leading to the pattern.

Shape: A head-and-shoulders top with multiple shoulders or multiple heads, but rarely both.

Symmetry: The shoulders should peak near the same price, be nearly the same distance from the head, and look similar (both wide or both narrow peaks) compared to their mirror opposite.

Volume: Usually higher on the left side of the pattern.

Neckline: Joins the lowest armpits and is often nearly horizontal. Rarely does it slope steeply.

Confirmation: The pattern confirms as valid when price closes below an up-sloping neckline or below the right armpit when the neckline slopes downward.

Measure Rule: Compute the height from the highest head (A) to the neckline directly below (B) and then subtract it from the breakout price (C).

http://www.thepatternsite.com/chst.html

I also added the double chin feature. The double chins are support lines drawn from the smaller shoulders. You might also want to take note of the strong confluence around the .5 fib line at 78.39, which is also where the neckline/double chins developed. Very possible we do a touch and go on the foremost neckline before the dollar attempts to break the 82.00 strong resistance level.
snapshot


EUR/USD
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snapshot


UUP -- US Dollar ETN
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
Might have to bump those puts to .02 if you're lucky on the ask, or .03 if UUP decides to rachet down tomorrow.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
snapshot
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Abe C QuantitativeExhaustion
3 years ago
WOW! Those calls were selling for .50. Amazing!
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StockFxMarket
3 years ago
I think DXY fall around 50% fibo level around your green line ...looks me good 78.50
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO StockFxMarket
3 years ago
Yes, that could be in fact what is going to happen. A bit of an overshoot to the temporary downside, past the neckline and later bounce forming the right shoulder.
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QuantitativeExhaustion PRO StockFxMarket
3 years ago
Excellent chart! Thanks for that update.
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DOLLAR INDEX - IMMINENT BREAKDOWN IN BEARISH LONG TERM TREND


Counter argument. DanV EW count
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Looking toppy. Not calling top yet, but this snap back to the neckline could be quick.
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