IvanLabrie

Dollar Index: Top in the horizon

TVC:DXY   The U.S. Dollar Index
The Dollar Index             quarterly chart has an uptrend signal comprised of 20 bars that has hit the target ahead of time.
To make things more interesting, the range expansion rally near the top is about to fail, meaning that price might not reach the target on chart on time. If this were to happen by the end of the year, a retracement of the whole advance would be a probable event.

In the daily we can observe a more tradeable setup forming, with a potential rising wedge completion, culminating in an uptrend target failure, which would give us a good excuse to short the Dollar accross the board.
The date the uptrend expires in the daily is December 3rd, so, pay close attention the Fed meeting on the 30th, and how the market reacts to it, and to the coming days' price action.

If you want more information in managing positions like these, and the way I'm approaching FX trading, contact me or Nicholas Coulby (ncoulb1) here, we're running a trading room chat via Skype, providing timely trade signals and coaching for a monthly fee.

Kind regards,

Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Comment: On track.
Comment: I don't want to label things but that looks like a complete terminal triangle to me.
Comment: Uptrend failure after the daily close. Look to short back towards 99.214.
Comment: Working.
Comment: This is a pretty epic forecast I have to say...
Comment: Marching down south.
Trade closed: target reached: After hitting all targets, it's possible that the DXY is reversing and about to trend up again.
Comment: We have formed a quarterly range expansion down bar now.
By this quarter's close, we get a validation level for the downtrend.
Generally speaking, the trend is technically still up, even if the first target has been met.
If sentiment shifts to bearish on the dollar on a massive scale, price will surely head the other way.
Market will go where the stops are.
I'm expecting a turn around these parts.
Daily just kills it. Nice job again
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Thanks!
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have to agree it was a great idea. what do you think about this and the latest update?
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perfect .... ;o)
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Awesome call
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Yes, some guy called Tim West gave me ancient manuscripts detailing these magicks.
Seems to work eh?
:p
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Right on mate. Great work :)
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nice thought,
thank you Ivan
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Thanks for sharing, Ivan. Would rising wedge implies Fed would probably not raise interest, because EURUSD is also forming a falling wedge. I do some wave counts on DXY, not really good at EW, not sure if DXY is in bull market or a ABC retracement.
snapshot
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tdmpac PlayDefence
I see two possibilities.

1) The rate hike has already been priced in, and when the announcement is made, it will confirm the price in, and the dollar will crash b/c its overbought.
2) Rate hike doesn't happen, and the poo poo hits the fan.

Of course, this doesn't really take into account the currency war considerations. Rate hiking , which will inevitably damage ourselves, It will also put the hurt to anyone with dollar denominated debt.... China? We know that China is going to massively devalue their currency. I'm assuming they are gonna do that by dumping treasuries and buying dollars with Yuan. Thats the major driver of the strong dollar at the moment in my opinion.

So whatever is going to happen is going to involve the dollar falling like a rock down a cliff. Otherwise China will literally price the States out of the market.
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