If you have seen some of my other charts and in particular EURUSD chart you will note that I do have overall bullish bias over longer term for EURUSD and correspondingly Bearish view for the Dollar. So much so that EURUSD could very well retest its all time high and Dollar index could plumb to new low. That aside I was alarmed at what I noted in the Dollar index price action over the last 2 days to the extent that whilst we can hope that it will hold the support zone, it is becoming vulnerable for further weakness and is imminent for the following reasons: (1) It has been consolidating since September Low in what might be possible Wave B triangle, which appears to be complete and new impulsive leg to the downside is in development. (2) USDJPY is near completing intermediate top and retracement is imminent if not already started. I will show the Snapshot of USDJPY in the Commenst below. (3) USDZAR appears to have topped - tradingview.com/v/uiGQcqKv/ (4) Taking a look at the UUP which shows Volume (Snap below in the comment section) shows that the OBV has already broken down below the support. That the Consolidation has taken place in declining volume and the recent down leg has exhibits above average volume and that the yesterday's decline had the highest volume in the recent time. Whilst this could be exhaustive move but such do not look reasonable in that we are still in the congestion. Except that it is showing extreme weakness. I hope I am wrong but wonder if against all odds Dollar could rally hols up here. If the Dollar Index broke below the support then EURUSDc will rocket to levels around 1.38 -1.40 or higher.
Comments
Abe_C
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Not even close
DanV
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Yes agreed and acknowledge in the comments. Thanks anyway.
Abe_C
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Do you use EW as your primary?
DanV
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Always in conjunction with other technical tools but where I think I see it clearly I do give more weight to EW. Why do you ask?
Abe_C
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Suggestion> After reviewing your speculations, you are 50/50 at best. Maybe you should use other techniques to ensure your accuracy.
DanV
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Thanks you your observation. I am happy with what I do. If it does not meet your objective then may be you should have your own ideas for other to see.
Abe_C
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I post on stocktwits. I don't think I can manage two social media sites while trading. Someone mentioned the accuracy of this "JR" member of TradingView so I gave it a look. I like JR's diversity of TA techniques. Maybe you should do the same.
DanV
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No Problem. Don't get your self distracted. No one expects anything from you anymore than you are able to give. I am happy with my method and will not consider changing anytime soon just because someone don't agree with it. If JR's analysis is good in your view then just take note of his work, Don't waste your time on folks like me, with all my respect.
Abe_C
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Sorry mate. Sometimes I forget people are not as thick skinned as myself. Good luck
DanV
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Whilst I am closing this chart and no specific trade was taken on DXY but only used as a gauge of Dollar Strength and hence possible move on other USD based assets or currency pairs. I noted on the chart the critical level on DXY apparently held. However, that only postpone the inevitable decline. I think DXY is approaching a possible level around 83 where it could form top either to range further in the zone with Sept Low and current high, or more likely to start the new trend to the downside. I will post a new chart shortly.