So now the dollar has topped? First long then short.

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
558 18 12
It looks like the dollar-index is topping this year. I smell a plunge in 2016, but I could be wrong. That is something that must be said ofcourse.

All fundamental traders are waiting for a rate hike but there won't be any. Not soon, at least the dollar has to meet 80's for a hike. That is why it might spike in december followed by a collapse.

My chart shows me a potential Head and Shoulder pattern could be formed here. Very early to tell but I think the rsi trendlines also show more up to come on the weekly chart.
Why would it do that?
Yahia.Awes IvanLabrie
Trendline support, weekly rejecting candle, bears couldn't take it down for weeks you just count the weekly candles and see if they could make a new low.
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
Also RSI sitting on trendline, I don't believe in a bearish DXY (yet)
IvanLabrie PRO Yahia.Awes
Did you see the fomc minutes outcome?
Did you see the EURUSD advance today and oil?
I believe we will see a rally in EURUSD asap.
Next week will be massively up if I'm right.
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Also gold, check it out.
Yahia.Awes IvanLabrie
I was bullish on commodities, but I am neutral now I suspect new lows sorry... See my crude oil idea and you will know why.
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
Almost at the most hard resistance of last two years. If it breaks up I re-consider my ideas.
This hopeless black gold and the last hope.

At the moment I am looking for a sweet short area to hold it to 30's and maybe lower.
Euphoria on it
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
If you look at the weekly picture you see crude oil is making an IHS.
if you negate Black Monday you could re-calibrate this to a bearish pennant. The opposite can be clearly seen on EU.

I should warn though that I wouldn't be surprised we see a pop down before Christmas as more people realize and price in the fantasy economics at play with the fed.

Also consider we generally move to a Risk On scenario leading up to Christmas, take a look at this 30 year seasonal chart of USD for instance, we see a dramatic Risk On play up to the December.


Despite the fact that more recent smaller seasonality charts show Risk Off up to December, see here:


If you consider the failed rate hike being priced in, we could see longer seasonality come back into play and negate the last few years bull running, which is my opinion.

It seems the sentiment of most is what you predict however - A rise in USD to Christmas followed by the large reversal.

All I am saying is be prepared for the poopoo to hit the blades a bit earlier than expected and dont get caught without toilet paper.


Thanks for commenting your view.
IvanLabrie PRO Yahia.Awes
Interesting seasonal charts.
I'm open to both scenarios, right now I have technical long signals in eurusd, so I'll take them.
We'll know soon enough, I believe this weekend is decisive for the dollar.
And negating Black Monday or any bar, is not something I'd do...too sharp a move to be ignored.
Sorry first sentence should be Bullish Pennant of course :)
"It looks like the dollar-index is topping this year. I smell a plunge in 2016, but I could be wrong." .... You didn't graph a plunge in 2016....
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes timwest
The head in 2016 is the plunge, did you see the pattern i have drawn roughly?
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
It all depends on how fast it rallies, to the upside. If it hits the channel resistance it could fall earlier if the rally is more powerfull. If it rallies slower it has more room up..
Thank you for sharing this. I support your view 100%! I predict at least 5 years of USD inflation...strictly based on global capital outflows..
Yahia.Awes eskgroup
Anytime eskgroup, I hope it helped you. The dollar will top soon and from there great opportunities will come in.
The market changes his mind, so do I.
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