All fundamental traders are waiting for a rate hike but there won't be any. Not soon, at least the dollar has to meet 80's for a hike. That is why it might spike in december followed by a collapse.
My chart shows me a potential Head and Shoulder pattern could be formed here. Very early to tell but I think the also show more up to come on the weekly chart.
I should warn though that I wouldn't be surprised we see a pop down before Christmas as more people realize and price in the fantasy economics at play with the fed.
Also consider we generally move to a Risk On scenario leading up to Christmas, take a look at this 30 year seasonal chart of USD for instance, we see a dramatic Risk On play up to the December.
Despite the fact that more recent smaller seasonality charts show Risk Off up to December, see here:
If you consider the failed rate hike being priced in, we could see longer seasonality come back into play and negate the last few years bull running, which is my opinion.
It seems the sentiment of most is what you predict however - A rise in USD to Christmas followed by the large reversal.
All I am saying is be prepared for the poopoo to hit the blades a bit earlier than expected and dont get caught without toilet paper.
I'm open to both scenarios, right now I have technical long signals in eurusd, so I'll take them.
We'll know soon enough, I believe this weekend is decisive for the dollar.
And negating Black Monday or any bar, is not something I'd do...too sharp a move to be ignored.