The U.S. Dollar Appears Overbought

The U.S. dollar index has been in a steady downtrend since May. It paused after breaking a short-term trend line on January 8, but the bearish pressure continues.

The main thing we wanted to highlight today is the overbought condition on stochastics. Each time it’s reached this high since March, lower prices have followed.

It’s also noteworthy that the recent high on Monday of 90.95 was slightly lower than the December 21 high of 91.02. Lower highs are consistent with downtrends.

The macro backdrop also supports dollar weakness, with most of the domestic data lately missing estimates (jobless claims, retail sales, Empire index). Meanwhile China continues to outperform.

That focuses attention on the next major catalyst for DXY: Jerome Powell on Wednesday, January 27. He will almost certainly paint a very dovish picture based on recent comments. (As recently as January 14, he said rate hikes are coming “no time soon.”)

If this plays out, sentiment could pivot back to precious metals – at least for a limited time.

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