The price is finally breaking the lower part of the channel, sit and play this beautiful downtrend.
What to take on considerations:
In the fundamental side:
*The trade war escalation of US against the world, now with Mexico and the progressive rises on tarrifs didn´t give a good taste to the market, the bond market is getting cheaper, with the spread of the 3 months bonds yield with the 10 years bonds rield rising more and more, the 10 years bond yiels is touching the 2.01 level, but it can get lower because the market is expecting two more cuts rates for the year end according the Fedwatch tool of CME Group, so in this point I can just say, the DXY is going to have a sharply drop to downside.
Tomorrow 4/6/2019 Powel is going to speak, the market is expecting a more dovish tone to cut rates this year.
In the technical side: The price is breaking finally the lower part of the channel, in this order of idea the ABC expanded flat retracement process is starting his journey to the "C" direction. I have to areas, the first one is the beggining of the ABC retracement process and the IV wave of the big picture movement for possibles smalls rebounds. Source:
Very often the middle wave of an expanded flat is 1.382 *A. It hasn't quite got there but is very close.
The final wave C needs to be a five or a falling wedge. Interestingly A*1.618 from the top of B gives a target of almost exactly 94.
Very nice chart.
kunsan
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I had a look at this using a different chart service (sometimes the highs and lows are different). I think there is a good chance that this rising wedge hasn't finished. The 'perfect' target for wave B is 98.8. It is possible to draw the wedge using the 95.7 low that broke through your trend line. I cannot say for sure of course, but I suspect that we are currently forming wave 'd' of the abdce rising wedge, and we have a wave 'e' rise to 98.8 or thereabouts still to come.
kunsan
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Very nice chart. I was just looking at a different DXY chart and the idea of an expanded flat for W2 came to mind - you got there first.
reneordosgoitia
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@kunsan, hi Kunsan thank you a lot for your comments, lets see what happen! if you are interested on my new idea for the coming week, catch this link
The final wave C needs to be a five or a falling wedge. Interestingly A*1.618 from the top of B gives a target of almost exactly 94.
Very nice chart.