The US Dollar is in a 4th wave correction, and appears to be forming either a flat-top triangle or contracting triangle, before heading higher. Key market data is imminent in about 2 weeks. US interest rates continue to make the US Dollar fundamentally attractive.
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The flat-topped running triangle scenario seems to be playing out. The other scenarios appear to be ruled out, and if we get a pulse upward after 3-wave pull back (wave (E) now in progress), further upside should follow.
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That GDP data on Friday morning at 5:30 PST is going to be the excuse to break one way or the other. Watch out for the head fake.
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ECB and BOJ left their rates unchanged at 0% and -0.1%. US Rates almost certainly going up tomorrow as expected. US GDP @ 4.1%. Consumer confidence beat expectations. NFP comes on Friday; probably strong. All bullish.
@cocawater, Thanks! I use Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement & extension levels combined with current events to get my big picture view. I try to look at least 2 weeks ahead for major economic news that might cause a chart to slow down or show some uncertainty, and sometimes a month or more out for really big events - like a major election. Some say news doesn't matter, but I have noticed that the anticipation period does. I also try to identify price structures as early as possible based on Elliott Wave rules, and then rule some things out as the chart progress. Thanks for the follow; I'll try not to disappoint!
cocawater
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@DaveKoehler, disappointment is not a big deal and you were not the person who had the football magazine in <Back to Future> movie. I am just so mind-blowed by your price structure, you pretty much were right about every up and down (SPX in another thread). There are lots of people study EW and Fibonacci, but each person has their own count and understanding. This is also why I gave up since I am not sure about what I was counting since. Especially when the actual trend goes other way, I feel like the market is just so hard to understand. So, I am using Astro method to do some IWM trend, hard to tell whether it is effective or not. However, compare to what you know, mine is nothing. Lastly, I have another questions, I kind like to share my Astro prediction if you are interested and what do you think about SPX? Thanks for your thorough reply.
DaveKoehler
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@cocawater, EWT has been by far the most effective analysis tool for me for quite some time. It's really insightful, and there are some rules that narrow down the possibilities, which is how I came to my conclusions about both DXY and SP500 futures. But you're right; there are SO many different ways to trade, and people have to do what makes sense to them and fits with their lifestyle and available time to trade. I'd be happy to look at your chart if you want to send me a direct message. I can't guarantee how fast I can get back to you, but I'll check it out. SPX should be going higher soon, but probably not until after the U.S. midterm elections in my opinion. It should find a bottom somewhere above 2594 (~2650 maybe), and then start advancing. If it closes below 2594, I'd expect further downside. It'll probably bounce around correcting and freaking people out and taking their money in the meantime until it gives a clear impulse up.
DaveKoehler
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@DaveKoehler, Sorry; 2591.25 would be the invalidation point on SP500 futures. A close below that value would invalidate the orginal idea of wave 1 leading diagonal plus wave 2 correction.
jeffreyjim
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@DaveKoehler, "Excellent Post" --- Thanks
" You are Looking Past Your Nose Into the "Future"
Not many people do this --- "Very Sad"
"One Eye Jim"