US Dollar Index - Year of the triangle

TVC:DXY   US Dollar Currency Index
1897 21 35
Topping candle on Friday
I'm still not giving up the idea that we are going to break to yearly lows in the US Dollar             soon. Now it's obvious that the whole 2016 year was a big triangle for the US Dollar             . Friday we broke out of the triangle, but by the close price is back in the triangle again. It's pretty hard to predict what will happen in the intervention competition so we cannot rule out that price is going to break above the July high in the next 2-3 days. But this is not the breakout you want to buy. As we printed a topping candle on Friday and we are back in the triangle there is a small chance for a breakout above the July high. Next week or the week after next we are going to test the lower line of the triangle and will break it down. At the middle of November a possible testback of the triangle and 200 SMA is coming and by Christmas we are going to break the July low and bottoming at 91.

Notice how overbought the RSI . Timewise we are too late to hold RSI in the overbought territory and print a strong rally like last November. So RSI will turn down and will be heading to oversold.
Comment: Zoom in the RSI indicator I post a few important notes there
Comment: Don't forget the bigger picture.
It's still a 2-year-range with a MACD divergence.
I have a question regarding this type of prediction. While you clearly can see the triangle and break out of it, a break above still shows you a short...while break below would also be a short? this way no matter what...its a short - does the triangle play any role in your bias then? Because if i would detach and look at the triangle and see a break out above, why not say then that it breaks to be a long?
It was a false breakout. Price broke out but couldn't stay there. A breakout should pull in the bulls.
But actually there is no more bull to jump on this train because all of them who thinks this is a bull story are already in this vehicle for a long time. I don't see any strength in the dollar. In 2015 we tested the upper line of the range twice. This year we couldn't tag the upper line of the range. We tagged the lower part of the range twice though. One of them broke down it. I remember how scary it was. No wonder. .We should have 4 rate hike this year. There might be only one.
+2 Reply
toothless chartwatchers
Nice explanation, thank you
2use chartwatchers
Thank you for the explanation. What is the exit strategy? How one would know that this idea is invalidated? price above 97.5?
A significant break above 98.
2use chartwatchers
98 made more sense to me too. So buying short closer to it is a possible trade
My only concern with the US dollar is this: Right now, Governments from all over the world are trying to maintain the status quo (I won't bore you with the politics) which means that they can keep this charade going for as long as they want. It's gonna take more than 'cycle analysis' to kick the dollar in the teeth :)

Arpi.. Have you considered the possibility that the dollar could remain range bound longer than anyone expects? Have you also considered the fact that Gold does not actually need to trade inversely to the dollar. Gold can climb with the dollar in tow.. We've seen this a countless number of times, so I don't know why everyone is obsessing over the dollar? What am I missing..?
Nightstar Nightstar
Today (October 11, 2016) is a perfect example of what I mean folks.. The US Dollar is going ballistic and Gold hasn't moved an inch. Gold doesn't always take its cues from the almighty Dollar.
Dollar index has to complete its 5th and final wave of the c wave (running from 2011 may 2nd) i believe we are about to start the 3rd wave of the 5th wave and price will eventually reach 103.5(if wave 5=wave 1 scenario) this coincide with the fact gbpusd(next heading to 1.13),,usdcad towards 1.42 then to 1.54 ...even oil(possibly one further push to the upside 53,,54 dollar then resume its 5th and final wave to 10$ a barrel.Markets have always been moving in a 5 wave pattern (Ralph Nelson Elliot has identified that back in 1930 when there was no computer and still does with all the HF traders .like global epidemics trend and cycle may change like short winter long summer but as humans even in our unconscious mind we form pattern.
thulasi thulasi
i mean 5 wave pattern (Elliot wave pattern)
I think above 98 FED will step in. Maybe they 've stepped in already on Friday. that's why the bearish pin bar.
The USD event on Friday was partially disappointing for me; otherwise, it would have been all green. I still like the average earnings. Thursday and Friday of this coming week (Oct. 13 and 14) is a deal breaker; however, we have a Fed signaling that rates will e raised. So, there is still some hope for the dollar.
thank u for idea
Looks like a A B C D E triangle to me which signals a move lower. The fact the E wave made a false break byt couldn't go above the C wave means a short stop above the C wave high is in order. Have a look at USDJPY chart looks identical.
I don't like this prediction i think that down near 96, after go long. First up until 97.50 and retest on 97 after long until 98.50.
Dollar seems it could be forming a possible double top. RSI is now in extremes that have not been seen since march 2015. Cycle decline is way over due. I believe a fall is imminent.
DXY is burning through resistance after resistance...

Someone needs to put an end to this nasty action
I think that someone will be the FED.
VirtualFax chartwatchers
That's what I meant and I hope at noon Miss Money will send Mr Buck where our little community here wants it to see going.
tp? is this a pullback or a reversal?
This isnt closed yet is it?
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