Due to what we saw for the last couple of weeks in terms of structure I start to believe that we might see more dollar weakness instead of a trend continuation. My view for AUDUSD is biased long for a very long period of time already, my bias for USDCAD is short for a long period of time. I realize that more than 50% of the dollar index comes from EURUSD and this would indicate that there is more Euro strength ahead for what might be a wave C instead of a triangle. But that I will post later.
Regarding the dollar index;I will be looking for the end of this correction in next weeks trading session to sell the dollar index. Which might test 90 and maybe even lower. Keep in mind that this is not a guaranteed trade and there is no such thing as a guaranteed trade but IF structure tells me to sell I will simply sell it with the arrows showing my bias of what to expect once we see the bearish break.
Comment
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About a month ago I posted my bullish scenario for dollar index, see post below:
So what has changed and why did I post my bearish scenario as well ? I'll try to explain it by means of a chart:
As you can see in my previous post I was looking for an impulse to unfold. Instead I believe we saw a zig-zag correction by means of a 5-3-5 structure for ABC. This suggests that we are in a more complex correction and that price isn't ready yet for a bullish continuation in terms of the bigger picture. So now we have to determine whether this count is correct or not. I will watch price action for now because I favor a move lower soon. Only if we see an acceleration higher I will start buying after a consolidation. Since EURUSD determines more than 50% of the dollar index we can't ignore what's going on in that pair. I updated EU this morning and as long as that triangle base line is in place it is simply almost impossible for the dollar index to accelerates much higher.
Comments
johnm600
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H Tim,
I'm wondering about the difference I see in your long term count from 2 months ago and now 4 days ago.
Is you count still wave (4) in May in which case we are in wave 3 for a major up side ?
Can you please show your updated count in the same detail as the 2 months ago count please.
Cheers
John
TimStuyts
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In terms of the long term count, wave 4 can retrace more than it already did. That and recent price action made me show the bearish scenario as well. Once price is showing a more complex pattern I always use both bearish and bullish scenario's so I can adjust very fast. I'll update dollar index next.
Safe trades and thanks for asking!
TomPower
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Tim, wtf, ok you are going the other way, so bullish on commodities then.
TimStuyts
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Tom please try to respond professional. Read my comments carefully, there is no one way or certain way. I literally wrote: Due to what we saw for the last couple of weeks in terms of structure I start to believe that we might see more dollar weakness instead of a trend continuation.
I explain all my views in detail for FREE like no other analyst does on TradingView (or maybe a few I haven't come across). So if you have a question let me know instead of making these kind of comments that make no sense at all. Yes the dollar tend to correlate. But BIGGER picture that doesn't have to change anything like I said many times before.
saif12
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he is not worth responding. Thanks for your spirit. :)
TimStuyts
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I haven't send anyone wrong, you just need to learn how to read. It is an IF = THEN process. But Saif is right. I stop responding. Safe trades!
saif12
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There are two kind of traders out there, those who work hard doing their homework and share their thoughts with others, and those who are like leaches. so either you start making your own analysis and join the first team, or stay with the Leaches.
I'm wondering about the difference I see in your long term count from 2 months ago and now 4 days ago.
Is you count still wave (4) in May in which case we are in wave 3 for a major up side ?
Can you please show your updated count in the same detail as the 2 months ago count please.
Cheers
John