Tomorrow is a big day in the markets as the Jackson Hole Symposium is under way where monetary policy leaders from around the US will be meeting to discuss monetary policy and other key economic issues. The US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) Forecast: -0.8% Previous: -0.9% figures will also be released which is a highly important event, this will measure the change of inflation in the US. Analysts believe as you can see by the numbers that the forecasted GDP numbers will be more than the previous data, thus inflation will rise. If this is not the case the US dollar will fall heavily and the stock market will form an uprise fundamentally. Thus this will be beneficial for the S&P500 and the NDX100 indexes while investors and banks will look to remove money from DXY currency pairs and exchange traded funds and look to move money into stock market securities and indices. This can be healthy for the market and we can hopefully get back into the normal market rhythm. This is also beneficial for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies due to crypto pairs being correlated against the US dollar.
The DXY is close to the start of bearish daily momentum as a new daily short trend can be starting. Tonight daily short algorithms potentially will be starting to be triggered and some of the faster algorithms will have already been triggered. The low of the DXY as it is currently crashing was 108.089, the last recent low was 108.079 and if this breaks then the drop can be immense. The 4 hour MACD has stayed in a bearish phase and the DXY can see more selling pressure potentially when the MACD signal line and the MACD line fall below the 0 axis origin towards negative infinity. From a daily chart point of view (24 hours) the MACD histogram has formed the first day of a red bearish inflection this can also add to the potential of a daily short trend. Faster MACDs are also crossing down on the daily chart currently, and the RSI holds near 60.42 which is still close to overbought but starting to move away towards the neutral direction. It is possible that we can move towards 106 and if that breaks we can move to 104. This also may be the long term double top area if weekly chart trends follow and monthly charts after that thus we could see the DXY in the low 90s next year. We will have to watch how the September candle opens up and inflation lowering will be beneficial for this case. The main basket of currencies have had a recent trend change as US dollar foreign exchange pairs fell short while the pound sterling, euro, yen, loonie, and the franc rose. The Aussie and the Kiwi also rose in the asian and early London sessions. The DXY daily 20 day SMA sits near 106.6. The London session is about to begin. $USD Currency Index
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The DXY is close to the start of bearish daily momentum as a new daily short trend can be starting. Tonight daily short algorithms potentially will be starting to be triggered and some of the faster algorithms will have already been triggered. The low of the DXY as it is currently crashing was 108.089, the last recent low was 108.079 and if this breaks then the drop can be immense. The 4 hour MACD has stayed in a bearish phase and the DXY can see more selling pressure potentially when the MACD signal line and the MACD line fall below the 0 axis origin towards negative infinity. From a daily chart point of view (24 hours) the MACD histogram has formed the first day of a red bearish inflection this can also add to the potential of a daily short trend. Faster MACDs are also crossing down on the daily chart currently, and the RSI holds near 60.42 which is still close to overbought but starting to move away towards the neutral direction. It is possible that we can move towards 106 and if that breaks we can move to 104. This also may be the long term double top area if weekly chart trends follow and monthly charts after that thus we could see the DXY in the low 90s next year. We will have to watch how the September candle opens up and inflation lowering will be beneficial for this case. The main basket of currencies have had a recent trend change as US dollar foreign exchange pairs fell short while the pound sterling, euro, yen, loonie, and the franc rose. The Aussie and the Kiwi also rose in the asian and early London sessions. The DXY daily 20 day SMA sits near 106.6. The London session is about to begin. $USD Currency Index
Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets