Within ABCD Triangle pattern. (from 1980 ). CD = 50% retracement of BC ( 121.68 ). High of 2001.
Still within a diamond shaped cross channel area(A,B). Supported by 2011 uptrend_line(and channel A), and recent multiple rejections key horizontal support(1992) at 78.60 level. (and 78.78 38.2% retracement) Losing this support, may fall to median line of channel B, and uptrend_line connecting the lows of 2008 and 2011, whereas the lows of 2011 is found at 72.63. Price is exactly sitting on the 200 sma(Weekly) and 200 sma Daily, boxed in a 2 year rectangle between 84.74 and 78.60, with no signs of breaking out, as of yet.
Cyclicality may point to a forming low.
Comments
Sinuhet
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thx for the chart!
If I analyse each pair of the dollar index basket then I come to conclusion that after a small USD rally, we will have one more log down, before a longterm USD uptrend beginns. The one more leg down would correspond with decline in USD bonds, peak of inflation and commodity rally. I believe stocks in this period will not rally significantly any more. And now tha pairs:
EUR/USD: expecting a small decline to 1.3465/1.3350 and then uptrend to 1.442. Break below 1.33 would negate thius idea and confirm a longterm uptrend in USD.
USD/CHF: a reverse mirror of EUR/USD due to EUR/CHF peg. I am still expecting a decline to 0,8515. A break above 0,916 would negate this scenario and indeed confirm your longterm USD uptrend.
GBP/USD: expecting reversal around 1.7330 and than decline mainly due to GBP weakness, less due to USD strength
NZD/USD: expecting reversal around 0,91. In other words some NZD strength/USD weakness ahead of us...
AUD/USD: this is a tricky pair... I believe the reversal in AUD/USD by 0,95 was a high of wave 3. In other words after some weakness in this pair we may well make another high and top by 0,957. A drop below 0,9050 would negate this scenario and confirm a longterm downtrend.
USD/JPY: after a smal pop up to some 1.32 I am still expecting a one more log down up to 96.75. In other words USD weakness/JPY strength still ahead.
USD/CAD: the pattern unclear for me...
Anyway let us see how it plays out, but a significant USD uptrend has started or is about to start within a next 6 months.
rv
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You are welcome, Sinuhet, thank you for your valuable added analysis. Possible, indeed. ( working on the 30 year treasury chart )
imho, generally speaking, the interesting part of each chart, is that it can add to the imagination and/or a possible different interpretation/or perspective. There is definitely no one-way street. 'Everything is possible, when nothing is certain'( "Uncertainty Principle" ?). This is what makes this place, so valuable(and enjoyable). thx again.
Technician
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Thanks for this, I like your approach, clears the noise. I have some comments though if you allow me; Its not clear on chart the start and end of the Fibonacci wave your pointing. Also, its more of a falling wedge pattern than a triangle.
rv
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You are welcome Technician. Thank you for your comment. Yes of course, could be ah, i just used the ABCD triangle pattern tool offered. ( came handy :) )
Fibonacci wave ?
If I analyse each pair of the dollar index basket then I come to conclusion that after a small USD rally, we will have one more log down, before a longterm USD uptrend beginns. The one more leg down would correspond with decline in USD bonds, peak of inflation and commodity rally. I believe stocks in this period will not rally significantly any more. And now tha pairs:
EUR/USD: expecting a small decline to 1.3465/1.3350 and then uptrend to 1.442. Break below 1.33 would negate thius idea and confirm a longterm uptrend in USD.
USD/CHF: a reverse mirror of EUR/USD due to EUR/CHF peg. I am still expecting a decline to 0,8515. A break above 0,916 would negate this scenario and indeed confirm your longterm USD uptrend.
GBP/USD: expecting reversal around 1.7330 and than decline mainly due to GBP weakness, less due to USD strength
NZD/USD: expecting reversal around 0,91. In other words some NZD strength/USD weakness ahead of us...
AUD/USD: this is a tricky pair... I believe the reversal in AUD/USD by 0,95 was a high of wave 3. In other words after some weakness in this pair we may well make another high and top by 0,957. A drop below 0,9050 would negate this scenario and confirm a longterm downtrend.
USD/JPY: after a smal pop up to some 1.32 I am still expecting a one more log down up to 96.75. In other words USD weakness/JPY strength still ahead.
USD/CAD: the pattern unclear for me...
Anyway let us see how it plays out, but a significant USD uptrend has started or is about to start within a next 6 months.