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Short

US Dollar Index - Confusion

TVC:DXY   US Dollar Currency Index
3087 33 57
The dollar is confused. Though it's foredoomed to fall a few traders ( small and big investors ) still haven't accepted the dollar is gone and it's entering a serious decline. Markets are usually working like that.
There are always a few players who can't or don't want to realize that the buck is gone. It's not going to break above 100$. It will be heading to 80$ very soon. Yesterday Brainard's speech was the typical example. It's crystal clear that the rate hike is off the table but market just doesn't want to accept that. They want to hear it from Yellen.

If you look at this chart you can see the weakness. We broke above the 200 SMA and couldn't hold it. In August we tagged the 200 SMA twice but no break above it. Price is now crawling on the trendline . When a few big payers get know that no rate hike till December we are going to break below the trendline and tag the 93$ level very fast. And next Wednesday we will enter the panic selling stage below the range as everyone wants to get rid of the dollar longs.
Comment: They might force the dollar to tag the 200 SMA one more time.
This dollar "rally" is very pathetic. Might break down any minute.
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Comment: Finally the dollar seems to be tagging the 200 SMA.
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Comment: Hourly timeframe flagging
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Comment: Today's winner in the intervention: ECB
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Comment: The dollar printing a key reversal as turning down from the 200 SMA.
ECB is trying to save the dollar - weakening the euro - but they will fail.
And the dollar will break down the trendline this week.
Get ready : it is going to be a nasty breakdown.
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Seasonals disagrees with this bet http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_usdx_election.html. Although it does not mean your forecast will not happen. You are holding any positions in currencies?
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I agree with your assessment. The Fed is a political animal loaded with progressive academics and would not do anything to jeopardize Hillary's chances by raising interest rates. If the institutions can not make the $$$ with higher interest rates they do it with fear resulting in higher volatility and more trading. Thank you for all your analysis.
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yeah us dollar is more likely to fall
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Let's see what Draghi can do to the DXY today. After him there is no more babbling from central bankers for a while. Last time he opened his mouth, the USD almost broke the down trendline. Can he make sure it breaks today is the big question? That would rhyme with the gold breaking up above 1330 level with confidence.
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Draghi wants a strong dollar so he can have a cheap euro, bad for Gold and Oil, but the dollar will fall but its looking sideways, probably until the fed!
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Will want until QE ends... Then they must start to strengthen the currency - it's the most traded pair, but they can't just make it so slope and lame...
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In anticipation of FOMC dollar is simply giving Gold (and other metals) a chance to revisit the support trendline before Gold takes off for good. Same is true for Oil as the almost formed inverse H&S pattern should eventually shoot Oil to the $75 (give or take) "five years support" turning into "later this fall resistance" area. At that time Dollar should regain its power to continue its multi-year rise.

The whole world is positioning itself for Sep 21. Imagine the damage if things unfold against the plan!.......
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VirtualFax imdbesttrader
Agree about the directions of the moves. What I'd like to know better is the more precise timing the dollar reaches its peak in the next few days before turning down
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imdbesttrader VirtualFax
It's in a trangle and a break through is expected soon. I am a countertrend specialist of time frame 60M and 240M. I trade on very few setups. I ensure the setups are perfect. However I'll keep an eye on dollar index and will let you know if I come accross any good trade setup. I would like to thank you for sharing your ideas with trading community and helping others. Cheers!!
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VirtualFax imdbesttrader
This is what I see. No USD confusion here. Everything plays out nicely - USD is up, Gold and the like are down, reaching their turning points, I believe, between Thu and Mon.

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imdbesttrader VirtualFax
This is exactly how I looked at the setup earlier and to me your analysis looks logical and correct.
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watsonzou26 VirtualFax
Great chart.
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VirtualFax watsonzou26
Appreciate the compliment. I hope Yellen won't F it up next Wed.

The other thing is that it looks great as long as it works in the direction people trade. As soon as the two directions diverge, you start getting yelled at : )

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investment6300 VirtualFax
hahahahah...all because their lack of imagination
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You think that in 2 weeks time, just because they don't hike the rates US$ going to 91 ? Not a little to strong ? 91 wasn't long long time ago... It would mean that Euro will shoot to like 1.18~1.2?
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Looks like DX is hell bent on hitting the top of the wedge it is in right now, around 95.80 ~ 96... might play out one more week after the FED meets on 9/21 and reports that they are not increasing rates at this time!
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sampo caneman
exactly!
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You seem a bit confused ;-)
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Thanks Arpi for the update :)
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0.76 Bil $ GC1 dumped in 15 mins
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The pain will end soon. I am just holding my position.
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What conclusions you draw Arpi?
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The dollar will not kiss the 200 SMA for a while after this.
The chance of the rate hike is 15% even after today's news.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
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Let's see. Same projection as I have more or less :)
Top at 96.07 before downfall.
 
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It has 1 hour and 40 minutes left before it should be put out of its misery.
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Not sure we are going to get it today...
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Viking83 PRO chartwatchers
We're on track unless some catalyst change the speed of the process.
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I think we reached the top at 96.03. Fake USD bull look exhausted.
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And oil ? Going to DCL ?
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more and more corruptions in these "free" markets
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qivblzFMwLw
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all you see:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qivblzFMwLw
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