The March ’08 advance is labeled as a corrective upswing, a Zig-Zag pattern. Using Fib-price ratio model for this pattern combined with internal price measurements, we have three fib-price ratios converging, heightening the probability that the five-wave sequence (i)-(v) has ended within the last C-wave (circle) of the corrective Zig-Zag pattern indicating the closing of a cycle. The end of the larger degree second-corrective wave 2(square) at 103.82 (61.8% of the first-wave drop (1 square)) is paving the way for the larger trend continuation.
After the completion of the internal fourth-wave correction (iv) of C(circle) which took the form of a triangle, price traded upwards with a 5-wave sequence till January 2017 high at 103.82, responded lower afterwards and has been declining since. Is this the case, then the scenario for the A-B-C (circle) Zig-Zag completion is corroborated as a triangle always occur in a position prior to the final actionary wave, in our case (v)-wave.
Having confirmed the reversal signature and witnessing a five-wave (i.-v.) price event coming to its completion labeled as 1, we have set our price target at 88.70(+/-) awaiting a reversal from that point, and price to go through some retracement rise. Could that be the rally of strength during the post bubble contraction phase before the bubble burst? It remains to be seen. One thing for sure though, the next 1-2 years will be dollar’s recovery phase.
Thanks for your attention
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Price tested the determined target and we faced the first rejection. Monitoring price form that point.
Closer look, completing the 5-wave sequence Eyes at 87.20(+/-)
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Flat in action
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Counter trend rally began.
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Five-wave sequence developed. Wait for the correction phase.
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DXY short developing with an exp flat formation.
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Potential extended corrective wave for (b) completion
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The U.S dollar index is set to accelerate higher through the remainder of this year. This is based upon the incomplete a-b-c zig zag advance from its Feb. ’18 low of 88.26. I have launched a blog as my personal thought repository and worth sharing readings for all things trading and markets that may catch my attention. You can find it here: trading-manifesto.com/
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The dollar is already on its way lower confirming the continuation of its downtrend, having completed its Zig-Zag first upside target-off some pips, as there is a shortened wave (c) within this structure
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Price is heading to the original target. Eyes 100.500(+/-) for diagonal completion. Same with EUR
"Excellent Chart Work" --- Thanks
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My Opinion
66.7% or better chance your A-B-C Wave Count is correct. (Ended January, 2017 at 103.82)
March, 2008 low 70.698 should be taken out in a few years (By the end of 2023)
just notice the sub wave c of your wave (iv) ended beyond the end of wave a, this proabally should not be recognized as a triangle
ChrisMark
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@wsbza, Yea mate that's an unusual and very acute triangle with an extended double three c wave pattern, which definitely you don't see a lot, but possibly still valid. No wonder if you also notice a three-wave triangle out there.
wsbza
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@ChrisMark, we connect a-c & b-d line to get a triangle, not b-d & c-e line. Your wave (iv) suggests a triangle like the black pattern in chart below
wsbza
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@ChrisMark, I would probably label your a as 'w', b as 'x', then c-d-e plus the rest as a triangle wave 'y'
ChrisMark
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@wsbza, I'm pretty aware of these, pal. By the way, your pattern recognition is invalid: X wave has developed an extreme in price.
wsbza
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@ChrisMark, it's only double or triple zigzag that does not allow wave X to surpass the beginning of wave W, not for combinations