DXY
Hello Traders,
This is my weekly outlook for DXY, this week should be a relatively relaxed week as their is no high impact news except for Friday and a US holiday on Monday, because of this I believe USD will pull back from last weeks sell off to a HTF key point-on the daily TF-to rebalance price. A few long positions have been added by commercials, which makes me think they're hedging for a small correction to then continue a sell off since the majority of their positions are net short.
Stimulus benefits will end this Monday, therefore the dollar should begin to gain a bit more strength due to the reduced printing of the dollar, however, inflation is still a big concern as I see a weakened 10y, meaning, inflation is still a prominent risk with rising delta cases, continued government purchases, and supply and demand issues. There still is an overall secular decline of inflation as last months CPI numbers showed, however delta cases, additional 3.5 trillion government package, and reduced 10y yields could change that weakening the dollar further.
With the huge miss of Friday's NFP report and a continued pause on tapering, more net short positions by commercials and overall seasonal technical analysis I still see dollar as net BEARISH. Septembers NFP will be the catalyst about tapering thoughts, due to the end of stimulus and people having to go back to work because of no income or help from the government, therefore, we should see higher NFP numbers, strengthening the dollar. If September/October reports are stronger enough, by November we should begin hearing talks about rate hikes or a slow down of purchases, which will cause another small correction of 2-7% on the equity market and an increase in yields. Thats if Delta, WH turmoil, and inflation are controlled...
Potential Bullish Fundamental Catalyst:
1. 09/08 Increased Job Openings
2.Lower Unemployment Claims
3. Less oil inventory
4.Lower PPI, inflation curving down, reduction in government spending package.
5. accelerating the TF for rate hikes.
Bearish Fundamental Catalyst:
1.09/15 Increased corporate/capital earning tax
2. 09/27 3.5 Trillion Government spending package bill (can be negotiated through november)-- possible 5-10% pull back on equities.
3. increased inflation, less job openings, higher unemployment claims
4.Stimulus support because of rising delta cases
5. delaying tapering process.
6. Europe reopening and possible rate hikes.
Hope everyone has a great trading week! :)
Will update everyday if anything changes.
(this is my trading journal not signals).
Trade active:
buy stops liquidated, waiting for retest and then a continuation tomorrow
Trade active:
moving nicely!
Trade active:
Target one hit! hopefully tomorrow it sells off :)
Trade closed: target reached:
Really proud of this one as DXY tends to be unforgiving to me lol. TP SMASHED!!