TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
The fats in the fire, or at least, weekly price action suggests that interpretation!!
The rally that started / resumed the week of Monday 9-21-2020 had initially
begun on Tuesday 9-01-2020. Subsequently, after Monday 9-21-2020, the rally
peaked on Friday 9-25-2020, completing a weekly price bar. Next, prices turned
down, within the short term trading range. Prices declined for two
weeks. This week, prices ‘bounced’ within the just created short-term trading
range. Now, the critical trading question has become: “Is the current bounce
going to become a “retest / lower high” to the high on Friday, 9-25-2020?”

Within this week’s price bar the increased volume on
Tuesday 10-13-2020, when compared to the volume on the previous Friday 10-
09-2020, suggested that there was interest in the upside effort. Nonetheless, the
decreased volume on Thursday 10-15-2020, when compared to the intra-week
daily volume on Tuesday 10-13-2020, indicated that upside weekly interest was
not immediately sustainable. Subsequently, prices had a marginal decline, on
decreased volume , on Friday 10-16-2020, to close the weekly price bar, with dual
interpretations, but nonetheless, with an analytical bias toward the current wave
of buying, as “most probably,” a short-term bounce that could / should become a
“retest and lower high” to the high on Friday, 9-25-2020.
Assuming the interpretation, just explained, becomes the reality, prices should be
positioned or will soon be positioned, to decline and record a new low for the
larger decline. Therefore, the correct action, for traders – now, is to closely
monitor forthcoming price action for indications that the current short-term rally
is a short-term rally that cannot create a following to sustain the rally
, to become more than a bounce within a larger decline! If so, the trade
should have the required “good odds.”
Robert N. Burgess
Blake J. Burgess


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