Yields/Rate Cuts/Repo/QE-Not QE....Does USD Hold here...Doesnt look Good!
Head Shots Only!
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*FED TO START BUYING 60B TREASURY BILLS PER MONTH FROM OCT. 15 *FED SAYS TREASURY BILL PURCHASES TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO 2Q *FED TO CONDUCT OVERNIGHT AND TERM REPOS AT LEAST THROUGH JAN.
Global Central Banks tire of paying USA Debt burden (UST Auctions), China foresaw the current trade war (strategy) years ago...Fed is cornered and out of tools...tune out the noise...do you not see what's forming in front of you????
Good for GOLD/SILV/BTC NOT for USDs!!!
Environments change...Adapt or Die!
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We’re also not convinced that China & the US will be able to reach a deal later in November, if they don’t then the trade-weighted dollar could get a re-boost. The leaders of the latter two countries may meet at the APEC meeting November 16-17 in Santiago, Chile. Nordea
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Growth outlook suggests it’s too early to underweight FX havens…
We earlier showed how US CEO confidence had plunged to recessionary levels, and when we have examined this number further, we find that if anything it historically leads both ISM manufacturing (by one quarter) and ISM non-manufacturing (by three quarters). Unless CEO confidence magically recovers in Q4, we may be in for further bad news for global growth over the next few quarters (simple regressions suggests ISM non-manufacturing at or below 50 by next spring and ISM manufacturing at ~46 in 2020). To us that suggests it’s likely too early to underweight havens assets (in FX: USD, CHF, JPY vs the rest of G10). (We think USD bears will do better shorting USD vs EM currencies such as the RUB - USD/RUB broke below its uptrend last Friday). Nordea
Absolutely right - well done. Further drop was just a matter of time.
Do you think there will be a bit of a recovery on Monday 21 Oct from very low RSI ?
MikeSans
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@mikejd, Low RSI/Low Vix in my opinion are deflections...until the macro improves and the Fed taking money out of the system due to repos, in my two cent opinion that does not bode well in the short term....TW is about to get worse...Chineese are not giving into anything, way beyond a TW now...other thing that is different now is UST yields on the long end are no where near what they were in say post 08..its a diff environment...I am not a Uber Bear/Doomsayer and I am not in the camp that sees a recession in 19...but pullbacks/corrections...Yes. Something is wrong in the global plumbing and No One knows, and probably will not until after the fact...I have no reason to see any of these current trends change in OCT...once I see the macro, bond yields increase maybe but so far the environment screams at best a 50/50 portfolio w/plenty in reserve...depends on your pain level!
Do you think there will be a bit of a recovery on Monday 21 Oct from very low RSI ?