Dollar breaks descending Triangle

The US dollar breaks the 4H descending triangle on better than expected consumer price data this morning, printing a 1.7 percent increase versus economist estimates of a 1.6 percent; but, this figure still remains lower than the Fed's two percent target, and, perhaps much lower that Fed Chair Janet Yellen wants it.

The dollar likely got a boost on disappointing Canadian data, which saw retail sales contract .3 percent. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee ( MPC ) voted once again not to increase interest rates. Both the loonie and Sterling trade lower.

The price action will become bullish with a close above the descending trend line with 85.90 being the nearest likely resistance level before retesting 86. The dollar could a boost higher, as COT data shows the largest flood of speculators into the dollar futures hits record levels. If price action trades back within the triangle, look for a retest of the broken resistance, now support, lines (magenta).

Neutral on the dollar short-term, as I expect pops of action to occur. However, I remain bearish on the dollar 3-13 months out.


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