$DXY Long back to March Lows

I don't expect much out of this dollar rally. I went short EURUSD starting the next day after the FOMC statement and continued to short through Friday. When the dollar has big selloffs into an FOMC date, usually there is a rebound shortly after.

I expect that we continue to drop into December after this backtest occurs. We seem to be repeating the 2008-2009 DXY "reset" extremely well.

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Expectation is a retest of the March lows by mid August, and then a descent back down.

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Compare the same sequence to 2008-2009

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We are "re-aligning" where the "last opportunity to short" DXY was mid June, with the expectation of a temporary bottom/capitulation sometime at the end of July or early August. That is exactly what has happened here.

I do not expect this rebound to last longer than August 20.

Comment:

Well this idea is back in play. Eventually the 50 Day BBs are going to matter here and should be approached right when the March low is struck.