Globalization is dead. The fat lady has sang, the dirt is piled high next to the hole in the ground, obituaries read, notices had been long mailed to all the parties concerned. All there is left to do now is to show up at the funeral - provided you are not too busy starving or freezing to death, or otherwise engaged with similarly pressing diversions. This IS the end of the world, as far as those currently alive came to know it. How could one tell? ... By simply doing the math - while reflecting on the known laws of physics.
The following is more of a brief recap, rather than short term trading advise. Nevertheless, if in doubt, this is a USD Long call, the size of Montana!
1) "Things" are 10-30 times cheaper to "float" (energy-/cost-wise) than any possible form of land transport. E.g. if you are Germany (the EU) or China, and are fully dependent on external food and energy sources, and have zero (0) effective long-range navy to protect any essential shipping lines ... Digg up your heirloom calendars from the previous century because they will come very handy, once again. (Not to mention that purchasing a new calendar will not be within your means.) That quintessential and necessarily socialist - arguably fascist - EU slant will make matters even worse, if that'd be any way possible. [France is the only likely winner in Europe, or rather in this case, the lone escapee. That nation's healthy pessimism - the deepest in the world, according to surveys - is also likely to be a notable plus, right about now.]
2) The "Green (renewable) Revolution" is a fantasy - Including the "EV Revolution" Yes, lithium is light and plenty BUT it is also one of the least energy dense metals in the periodic table of elements. (I.e. it can't move "things"! - By itself, it'd be like pissing in the wind.) One needs to mix it with "something" - like Cadmium, the ONLY source of which is literarily one of the most remote places on earth, in the Democratic Republic of ____ [your guess here] ___, which is neither democratic nor a republic - nor a state or a country. E.g. No on demand availability = No renewable energy. Not to mention the energy costs - like aluminium, etc. - just in the production of the necessary infrastructure. In short, no technology exists, at present, which would have a chance to make the whole idea viable, by any tangible means, measure, or foresight.
3) China - is "dead". It is already in the process of passing that proverbial water buffalo which the Chinese Dragon has swallowed a little ways back and as of this year (2023) it is in a full fledged, unmitigated demographic collapse. Ain't no fixin' that, ya'll! To make things even more inconvenient, China has the longest (food + energy) supply lines, possible on this planet. (Some of those even longer than the other side of the world.) Count on a - once again - rural China with 800 million subsistence gardeners by 2035, starting now!
4) Russia That 1/6th of dry land on this globe has got everything! Except all the good stuff is well over a 1000 miles inland - and still in the ground! -, not to mention all of it being totally land locked. (Refer to "1") E.g. Potential issues with reliance on Russian supply lines has similar connotations to the overpopulation issue on Mars.
5)Africa For real? ... Not!
6) South America They have everything, pretty much. Just as most of it is also land-locked. But since that whole chunk of the planet is squarely in the N. American zone of interests, simply chuck it up as an integral part of NAFTA.
... leaving only one, single country/block that posses ample domestic food and energy resources, combined with incomparable industrial and military strength and reach, not to mention a sufficiently large internal market, including a (still) favorable demographic - that is also optimally dispersed -, to do as it pleases, as long as it pleases, to/for whom it pleases: "Fortress America".
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Lately, this has been running according to the numbers lately, rather reliably; This is now clearly indicating near term weakness, also confirmed by individual USD-pairs technical pictures. This is a Short, for now.
Trade closed: target reached
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SHORT, for now. Tight stops.
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Here is a bird-eye view; If memory serves, this is the looks of a massive uptrend.
Here is a close(r)-up;
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The very simple (yet, reliable) math; LONG
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The DXY should recover here; ... somewhere in the neighborhood of +2% (then wait-and see).
Trade closed: target reached
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FLAT
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LONG - Chances for the USD to go on a tear here are excellent!
A number of factors (confluences) rhyme here;
- Euro's overwhelming propensity to set yearly extremes in January (2023 = Low); - [Still] significant, top side Gamma Skew (short squeeze);
on the technical side
- Ciphers (like the one here) frequently form around Price channel extremes where prices then cut across (sideways) in the already existing price channel (like the one here), before a sharp continuation in said channel (main trend) - Up, in this case.
All these factors significantly enhance the likelihood of a strong - "in-channel" - upward price continuation!
Trade closed: target reached
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DXY - FLAT; Target reached +5.75% (+132% Net), with a strait, 0-drama, wire-to-wire shot.😎 But now, it is time for a brief pause for the cause as the C.O.T. is getting lopsided on the Long Side -> Making the DXY a Short here, for now.
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One may wishes to be careful here as a Short Squeeze especially in the Euro (200-300 pips) is quite likely here! Long EURUSD - as a try w. tight stops.
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As we were saying ... LONG
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EURUSD Now, since everyone and their mamma is levered up already to the hilt ... ... LONG on this one, right?! - The good news is that, as expected, it now appears to be well on it's way! Target: 107.68 -> the 800 Ema of period 480 mins.
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Should one have missed the original (first) Long Entry ... ... here is an excellent 2nd chance to get LONG
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EURUSD - (very) LONG! Technically, it's the perfect storm! Ought to be good for a swift +200 pips.
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Look at where it is - top of the descending channel! Chances are it's a temporary reversal here. FLAT, for now.
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Don't sell into support! IFF it's going to reverse, it is likely to do it around here. Prepare for a Long Entry.
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USD - SHORT; EURUSD - LONG This trade continues well on track!😎
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USDCHF (Including this pair here, not to have to start a fresh post, for now.) - Looking for a LONG Entry; This [arrows] remains the most likely scenario on it's way back to Par (+1,100) - from around here. Looking for a Daily reversal for a full load‼️ [Slightly less vulnerable than the EURUSD but this will change!]
Check X(Twitter): @arl_capital for more frequent updates! - This goes for all.
@dietron, Sounds good. Let's ride it up there first then revisit the issue by the fire-side in the brand new 15M hunting lodge, it just bought ;-)
dietron
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@Nemo_Confidat I'll bring the cigars. Shall we dine on Beef Wellington or Quail?
Nemo_Confidat
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@dietron, At 120.00 ... There better be Noah's Ark - to roast.
dietron
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Zooming out to the monthly chart - the last time ATR was this high and the stochastic was ready to cross above oversold, it rose 13 points before correcting.
Se7enSkies
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The dollar is going down to s**t and your confidence is not gonna save it.
bittexobot
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all going to zero ? 🤔
marcomarcello2211
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What are your thoughts about BTC in all of this?...dump in a couple of months?...followed by all time BTC SUPER CYCLE? Thanks
Nemo_Confidat
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@marcomarcello2211, The short answer; We believe the USD will absolutely crush them all - including BTC. (The long answer would contain the reasoning behind it.;-) In general, it is not so much because the US economy oh so perfect but on a comparative basis, it sure makes the (combined!) rest of the world look like a unsuccessful boy scout jamboree. (The US currently being the fastest developing economy in the World - by far - while China is finished, for a long long time to come!)
marcomarcello2211
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@Nemo_Confidat, Interesting...this would be by far the longest crypto bear market we've seen...no doubt it will frustrate investors thinking the "bottom" is in.