supratimbarman

Falling DXY Indicating a Long Buy for the GBP and EUR vs the USD

Long
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
There is a clear and obvious Head and Shoulders Pattern developing in the DXY or the US Dollar Index , (also referred to as the USDX).

This H&S Pattern was first evident in Nov 2016 when Trump won the US Elections and it is, currently, again making another appearance.

The Lower Arrow indicates 88, which is where the DXY fell to from the first occurrence of the H&S .

The Rising Trendline (marked in Green between the Upper and Lower Bounds) has been broken and I feel that it will fall substantially, after rising a bit from its current value.

All this implies a good run for the GBP and the EUR vs the USD, (in the case of the GBPUSD ; a long trade till 1.3700 or even 1.4000 seems a fairly safe trade).

There is also an interesting side-effect of a falling DXY , and that is, a potential weak rise in US Equities based off the back of a weak US Dollar .
2nd Feb 2020
Comment: Update on the trades i am currently taking off the DXY

30jan bought gbp/usd at 1.30907 stake £10
02feb shorted the dxy at 97.235 stake of £10
02feb bought gbp/usd at 1.31824 stake £10
09feb bought gbp/usd at 1.28887 stake £10
09feb bought gbp/usd at 1.28893 stake £10
14feb closed the 09feb bet at 1.30459 profit of £1566
14feb closed the 09feb bet at 1.30461 profit of £1574
14feb bought gbp/usd at 1.3046 stake £20

3 gbp/usd long trades currently open
2 gbp/usd long trades closed
1 dxy short remains open

https://prnt.sc/r6fmen
Comment: currently open trades are as follows:

02 feb dxy short at 97.235

30jan gbpusd buy at 1.30907
02feb gbpusd buy at 1.31824
14feb gbpusd buy at 1.30248

my take profit is currently 1.3700 on each gbpusd long

these are spreadbets and the stake is £10 on each bet

on the 20th of feb, the dxy surges finally ends and it sees to be turning southbound
Comment: the DXY finally turns just above the famous 2nd right shoulder from just below 99 and is now targeting the blue line to about 95.10.

the head&shoulders pattern is starting to play out perfectly and the DXY is heading south to about 88.

Comments

GU looks like an interesting pair to have on watchlist, my view
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supratimbarman transparent-fx
@transparent-fx, Outstanding Analysis. I learnt a lot from those 4 minutes. Thank you.
Reply
Very good job
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@Saeed966, Thank you very much
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