The show is over folks. Ok. I don't really know the show is over, but it certainly "FEELS" like it is.
The world seems to flood to the US Dollar in times of crisis and this is happening again.
Isn't it interesting that the current rally is identical in SPEED and MAGNITUDE and ACCELERATION and DURATION?
See for yourself and draw your own conclusions. The opportunity is behind us but the refrain from the crowd is getting loud, just like the final climax at a fireworks show. After this, it is over. The rally, that is.
I'll hone down the exact entry techniques, but I'd suggest booking profits here - and for some of you, that could mean buying that foreign villa at the beach you've always been wanting.
Cheers.
Tim 9:50AM Friday, January 23, 2015 94.72 last DXY
Comments
vlad.adrian
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I can't understand why so many people want to short the dollar. Short the dollar against what? Against euro with QE, against Yen that has unlimited easing behind it (Kuroda just repeated that today), against the CAD that just slashed interest rates ??? There is no reason to short the dollar. Of course corrections will come, they always do, but this will be a multi year uptrend. For the last three months I have been seeing short dollar dollar charts, and whenever I comment, I get replies such as 'you will see', 'we are overextended', 'there is no reason for the dollar to keep rising'. During the last three months, the dollar kept going higher and higher. The higher it goes, the more bears come to the market. Is the herd really bullish?? I am not sure. From my point of view, there is only one logical bet in the currency market, and that is to buy the dollar, short almost everything else (there are a few exceptions like AUD, ZAR and many other exotic currencies). As I said on DanV's chart on EURUSD(which was bullish two weeks ago), no matter the outcome, this is the logical trade.
timwest
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I am very eager for the time when we can really "see" what people are thinking, not just publishing in chart forms, but by votes and if necessary by people telling us what their positions are as a % of their portfolio. Then we can really see if bears are fighting a trend, which is bullish as you have so clearly noted. The best measure of a market is to find out when there is no one left to buy and no one left to sell and then likely there is nothing but stops on the other side of the market and it takes off in the other direction to wipe everyone off the table. That's what markets do - they clear. They go to the level where the most trades happen. Feel free to post your charts with your reasoning and outline your targets and stops, etc. Let's all make money together the old fashioned way by "earning it" in the markets.
timwest
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I also want everyone to vote on their chart every day, whether they are bullish or bearish and at what level they would change their mind and what % of portfolio they would hold in positions. We could easily determine the trend and at what point people would change their thinking as a crowd. This is what I'm hoping for.
vlad.adrian
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There is a problem with that. You assume that everyone around here is a trader. I strongly believe that less than 10% of the TV community trade with real money. I don't want to get into details now.
timwest
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It's not a big deal. I ran a group of inexperienced people and we got together each month to share ideas and it was incredible how perceptive people were that had zero experience in the markets because they had experience in life or in work. What we need are fresh perspectives and the freedom to allow people to express those views. We collectively made incredible portfolios each month with the ideas that people shared. It was the best returns I've seen because the markets were volatile and trended in those years, but anyone can make good observations about any market. I'm convinced of that and is one of the reasons I find TradingView so attractive. The value of people coming together to share ideas is invaluable. I can explain further: Imagine a portfolio where the risk is 10% each month. If there are 20 people managing the portfolio, each person gets to risk 0.5%. Each idea gets stopped out at 3 average trading ranges from entry, no matter what the entry. That's the maximum stop. So you size the trade so that it risks 0.5% of the portfolio in 3 ATR's (11-day). The 20 trades will be ideas all over the map, but there is only one trade allowed per market. First one to register the trade gets the trade. If the markets correlate 99%, then that doesn't count. It's that simple. We made 50% return with less than a 4% drawdown along the way. Nothing short of incredible in a period of 2 years. Only 1 "trade" per month. If you got stopped out, you waited until the next month's meeting. So great.
timwest
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We could offer subscriptions to the monthly portfolios :-) (who knows, maybe weekly and daily portfolios would "work" also)
vlad.adrian
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Well, I am a real pessimist. I am not disagreeing with you, but I don't see it the same way, it's just how my mind works. As far as I am concerned, you were gifted with some smart people in that group. I repeat, I am not disagreeing in any way.
timwest
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If people can express their opinion and it is based on something, then it is useful. We had different people at each meeting and the returns were made by almost everyone through the years. It is literally the process of speaking your mind in front of a group and sharing what your one "best idea" is. That seems to focus people on the most important trend they see. It can come from reading a newspaper or watching the evening news. The key is the trade is held for a month and closed out (profits run) and that losses get stopped out. Most people have too many ideas and then don't hold onto the winners and do hold onto the losers. That's how the system works - it forces you to make the odds work in your favor.
vlad.adrian
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Well, if it worked for you, it means it was a good system.
timwest
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I guess the key is that it was generally fundamental information that was being processed. Very few people were looking at a chart pattern and then deriving a reason for the trade. The key is to make each trade the same in terms of risk, so that a fixed % of the portfolio is risked on each trade. Most people put big trades on when they are confident and small trades on when they are not, and inevitably they trade big and lose when confident and small and win when they aren't. That kills any performance. Those are the additional value-added bits.