but one question here,
in my perpective, Cheap Dollar era was 2001 - 2014Q3 (anomalies (sharp ups-downs) in 2008-2010 is recorded due to biggest financial melt down in the market)
and the end of cheap dollar era has ended in 2014Q3 (as a man living in one of those "developing countires, i know what "cheap dollar" is how it changed "our lives" "consuming habits" dramaticaly until 2014Q3...) by the announcement of FED - imposing end of QE. / We can't say "expensive dollar" was in place while FED was in QE.....
The Expensive dollar era was 1992-2001 .. (also seen in your graph)
so the cycles are generally 8-9 Years or long, but here, the 2008-2011 is a gray zone due to aforementioned financal crisis. (2008 - 73ish. 2012 Jan - 73ish) so if we accept 2012 was the beggining of "expensive dollar" (or the first sights of it) i expect this era to last until 2020. so the close in 2020 shoud be around with one more attack to 105 zone within this period. what you see now is the same happened in 1998. particulary between aug- october before the german elections and the clintion-gate. (same stories like today right?)
and if you add, on monthly graph, EMA50 has just crossed EMA200 from below on 2015Q3- 1990s data shows when corssed below, at least 4-5 Years of uptrend for DXY occurs.
92.50 - 90. zone is the utmost test of it.
What you think?
UnknownUnicorn540299
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@sahinrecan, This is purely a techincal analysis of cycle lengths over the course of time, without mixing in fundamentals. However, cycles are not always constant over time, so you might be right with an extended upward cycle like you describe, but I see a potential for going as low as down in the 70-mid 80s before a potential re-visit to 104-region. An interesting question then, is how market will react if this now makes a lower yearly low than last year. Things can get far away from their fundamental value in markets over a longer period of time. So its gonna be interesting to see what will happen!
but one question here,
in my perpective, Cheap Dollar era was 2001 - 2014Q3 (anomalies (sharp ups-downs) in 2008-2010 is recorded due to biggest financial melt down in the market)
and the end of cheap dollar era has ended in 2014Q3 (as a man living in one of those "developing countires, i know what "cheap dollar" is how it changed "our lives" "consuming habits" dramaticaly until 2014Q3...) by the announcement of FED - imposing end of QE. / We can't say "expensive dollar" was in place while FED was in QE.....
The Expensive dollar era was 1992-2001 .. (also seen in your graph)
so the cycles are generally 8-9 Years or long, but here, the 2008-2011 is a gray zone due to aforementioned financal crisis. (2008 - 73ish. 2012 Jan - 73ish) so if we accept 2012 was the beggining of "expensive dollar" (or the first sights of it) i expect this era to last until 2020. so the close in 2020 shoud be around with one more attack to 105 zone within this period. what you see now is the same happened in 1998. particulary between aug- october before the german elections and the clintion-gate. (same stories like today right?)
and if you add, on monthly graph, EMA50 has just crossed EMA200 from below on 2015Q3- 1990s data shows when corssed below, at least 4-5 Years of uptrend for DXY occurs.
92.50 - 90. zone is the utmost test of it.
What you think?