Breakout of the wedge. Breakout above the 10 EMA.
But at this rate, given Yellen's speech and the market's expectancy of rate hike in June (almost nil) I doubt the FED will decide to hike rates in June.
Why? Because Yellen has always pushed for normalizing market expectations ahead of a move. In her own words from some weeks ago she said the point of mentioning a possible rate hike in "coming months" was to stabilize market expectations and not hit them with a shock.
The fact that she did not pursue a hawkish tone in her latest speech suggests that she does not need to "stabilize" or "normalize" markets as there will probably not be a rate hike.
This is my interpretation of the actions of the chairwoman and market psychology. There's a bit of fundamental analysis that suggests, to me, that a rate hike in June may not be feasible.
July? I don't know we'll take them as it comes.
That's why I want to hear why Arpi thinks there may still be a rate hike in June.
There is some credence to that perspective.
1) June rate hike (June 15) might make markets too turbulent as Brexit vote is the following week (June 23rd). The FED has made it abundantly clear (see February remarks and then most recent ones from last 2 weeks) that they do consider major events outside of the US economy when making decisions ABOUT the US economy.
2) July comes at a better time - it is right after Brexit and before the US elections. Two major events (one of which could be a non-event after a few days of happening) that can cause enough market turmoil to derail the economy for a bit longer.
3) December is right at the end of the year and that could be a little too late. This data dependent FED will want some more job readings before making a decision and December (possibly July too) timeframe allows for that but at the expense of giving up too much time.
This leaves us with a possible July hike.. but is it enough data? We'll know with time. A July hike seems to be gaining some traction..