4xForecaster

#UDollar Mulls 98.38; Limited Upside If > 98.66

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Friends,

The Dollar Index             is currently facing a significant, but discreet hurdle at 98.39. A break above 98.66 would indicate further headway towards the bearish entrenchment, defined by 99.49/99.91 range.

Predictive Analysis and Forecasting Model offers a limited upside potential given this first hurdle condition met, with a nominal/qualitative target defined as:

TG-Hi = 10.08 - 08 APR 2015


If a geometry develops, we will add this to the current string of Forex charts in which we revealed interesting and successful Hit Target education trades:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions


As posted before, the long-term outlook remain bullish for USD. However, this does not exclude the possibility of a bearish interim.

Stay tuned,


Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
iefan PRO
2 years ago
9 April 2015 $DXY

Hi David, possibly a decline due to this WW
snapshot
+5 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Exactly. Very nice - David
+4 Reply
Comment removed
4xForecaster PRO alex.a
2 years ago
@alex.a - This is extra work for me as well, since most of the charts I draw exist in TWO separate thread.

In these educational threads, I have compiled all of the charts in which there is a pertinent geometric event. However, each of the charts also have their own threads, in which I only add the update, but none of the "TECH-NOTE" or comment.


David
+5 Reply
alex.a 4xForecaster
2 years ago
With all the respect, Dave you post here for people to look. It would be wonderful if those posts are a bit user-friendly ~ Merci ~
Reply
4xForecaster PRO alex.a
2 years ago
@alex.a - I appreciate your feedback and well wishings, but please send these in privacy - There is more comments about what you wish TradingView could do than I can control. People are free to post if if is relevant to the topic Yes, the posts are for people to look, but also to add relevant comments to the topic.

Anything else is simply cleaned out so that the topic relates to the chart, and future readers can glean the information as easily as possible.

I have erased your other posts in which you asked that there was a different format such as a forum, something I cannot control, unfortunately.

Appreciate your feedback, though.

David
+2 Reply
10 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY stomped at forecast Bearish Entrenchment after price chose to break > 9839; 10.08 in sight:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
14 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY reached, now remains subdued Bearish Entrenchment; Bears in control; 100.08 pending:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $EUR
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

Any updates on this one?
Reply
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Hi David,

I can´t agree more with this one. Here is my view, based on 2 different charts.

1.
snapshot

The 4h charts shows we had a potentially continuation of the bullish trend, but was refused at 100,42 (orange horizontal line). In it I saw a new channel coming, you might also see this as bearflag. Now we are at the lower channel again, and the last chart is even better that's the bigger brother. I've learned that you must watch what happened in the past to predict what MIGHT happen, instead of predicting what might happen based upon a trend that came that day or week only.

2.
snapshot

The last chart shows us that we've hit the channel top and got refused. A lot of people are thinking that gold and silver will fall further. Well I feel very sorry for them if they don't look at the correlation with the dollar.
Reply
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Sorry here is the right one.. You can also see a hidden bearish divergence in it a lower high in price and a higher high in the indicator. No good signs for longers on this one.
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
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Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Sorry can you please delete the last message, it went wrong with copying.
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Reply
23 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY remains stomped at prior 98.39 conditional threshold; Geo likely driver of further decline:

snapshot


$USD $EUR #euro
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
24 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY: Geo completes 5th plot as forecast; Next: 98.39: probably; 99.49: possibly:

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$USD #usdollar #euro $EUR #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

There is a HUGE hidden bearish divergence in the monthly chart. Might be a too large tf, but yeah RSI there also very overbought. This DXY-thing going south soon ^_^
Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY: Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes 95.48, in line with prior pivot:

snapshot


$USD $JPY #yen #BOJ $yen #nikkei #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
29 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY hit all targets; Expect reactive rally to level of Pt-3 per "OffSet" Rule; Greater geo lurks:

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$USD #euro $XAU
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
millie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

How do you mean a greater geo lurks? A lower low after pt 3? Thanks.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO millie
2 years ago
Hello @millie - Yes, I can see how I left this a bit too obscure. What I meant, and was implying with the larger geometric wedge and the internal dashed orange arrow, was that a price rallying to the 97.00 threshold might possibly occur on the basis of the "Off-Set" Rule, and that this internal retracement would aid in marking the skeletal construct of that geometry. That level of attainment to 97.00 would represent the 4th plot of the larger geometry, as follows:


snapshot



Of course, this remains highly speculative at this point, but focusing purely on the ectopic 5-second of the smaller geometry would suggest a correction by way of a retracement. Applying the "Off-Set" Rule for that retracement relative to that smaller geometry, a reasonable target becomes the level of Point-3 of that same smaller geo, or 97.00.

Now, looking at the larger geometry, I have enumerated a series of geometric rules in the past, one of which is relatively loose, but demands that for a consolidation to occur, a projection of Elliott Wave from the termination level of its 2nd wave forward should define a line, which once crosses, would establish the beginning of a probable consolidation zone - The following chart is defining that line, although the departure point would represents a lesser degree (or internal) development of a second wave):


snapshot



As this line transects that area above, this area becomes a probable contender for the geometry which I seek.


OVERALL:

All of these steps have been defined before, and represent the systematic manner by which I seek a probable geometric set-up. I very much appreciate your requesting this elucidation at this point, and I have I have removed some of the obscurity.


David
+1 Reply
05 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/inkedIn:
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$DXY continues to rally towards 97.00/97.24 forecast range per geo's Off-Set Rule; Bearish outlook:

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$USD $XAU $EUR
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
14 MAY 2015 - Update:

Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY eyes 95.78; Internal geo support rallying potential toward its own 1-4 Line:

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#USDollar $USD $XAU #euro #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY follows bullish forecast, surges towards 95.78 target:

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#USDollar $USD #euro #gold $XAU $JPY $GBP $CAD #forex
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
20 MAY 2015 - Update;

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY hit its 95.78 target, as forecast; Expect significant resistance:

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$USD #euro #gold #usdollar $XAU $EUR $JPY
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
16 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY remains under bearish pressure; Predictive Model eyes 94.08; Background WW awaits Pt-5:

snapshot


#usdollar $USD #euro
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
17 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY hit target dead-on at 94.08; Lower ectopic Pt-5 is possible. If not, expect a normal WW reaction to 1-4 Line:

snapshot

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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY hit target at Wolfe Wave's 1-4 Line; Remains subdued to bearish trench:

snapshot


$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD $AUD #forex
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY daily chart remains bearish w/ price still subdued to predefined resistance level:

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$USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $AUD
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
20 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Watch for these Geo interplays:

1 - Internal is reaching its ectopic point-5 at 5', suggesting a high-probability support at price level corresponding to Point-4 of that same internal geometry per Geo's Off-Set Rule.

and

2 - Larger geometry completed a 1-2 Leg requirement of a Geo, which demands a standard reciprocal ab = cd symmetry (alternates symmetries are much rarer), whereas the 2-3 Leg may seek completion in the days ahead.

Note how the larger geometry offers its "Tunneling", based on the Geo-Anchor (green star), which represents point-a of the ab = cd symmetry in the smaller Geo. This interplay may be premature, but worth following for the time being - See following chart for ilustration:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
24 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY hit Wolfe Wave target; Breaks structural low; Opens to further downside risks:

snapshot


$DXY $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP $CAD
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


As long as 98.33 hold, the probability of downside remains higher:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


Now that the Fed's rate decision is out of the way, perhaps we can return to the charts with less of a feeling of risk of some surprising, adverse decision, no? In any case, the predictive analysis and forecasting and ensuing targets have not changed, either in this chart or any other Forex, commodity or index chart I have constructed over the past days, weeks, or months.

Here, the $USDollar remains unchanged in terms of what to expect. The foreground targets are intact, whereas the background geometries remain speculative. In this particular case, I am looking at the possibility of the Geo offering a mechanism of descent towards the bearish targets defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model.

It would require a significant adverse excursion in the order of a 5-prime (5'), even 5-second (5'') point definition to achieve this, especially as it would gradually limit the reactive rallying of price to the price level of Point-4 or that of Point-3, as the Geo's Off-Set Rule comes into play (i.e.: Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 and #4, respectively).

For now, here is what appears to come out of the background:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Here is the same daily chart, defining 5' and 5'' together:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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