History repeats itself and if we look we can learn from it. The chart is a look-over of the history of DXY. Take a good look at the previous journeys of DXY from the very tops to the bottoms. Look at MACD and the price. [Black vertical lines showing MACD bottoms; Dark blue vertical lines showing price bottoms.] MACD bottoms shortly right during the first big selloff and then develops a great bullish divergence on the long run. Though the price is going lower until it finally bottoms. There are roughly 6 years between the MACD bottom and the price trough. That is all happened from 1986 to 1982. And then again in between 2002-2008. One can also notice that troughs of DXY were lower and lower: in the year 2008 lower than in 1992. Also, the very peaks were lower as well: 2001 lower than 1985. (Unfortunately TV does not give me the full historical data, so actually, you are not able to see the 1985 peak on this chart, but that does not take away any major information out of this idea). As the recent top (last year in 2017) was lower than the one before in the year 2001, we can expect the coming bottom to be lower than 70. Bottoming price was lower each time although the lowest values of MACD were higher and higher. Looking at the recently developing prices of DXY: the top was in, now we are living the historical years of the USD going downhill, as the USD gradually devaluating compared to other currencies. I expect that the MACD has already bottomed, so from now on if history is about the repeat itself we can expect DXY to bottom around the year 2023. So from now, we have at least 4.5 to 5 years to sell every major and minor corrections (going up) of the USD, like the one that is happening now. Economical and Geo-political shifts we are experiencing these days are all supporting the devaluation of the USD, such as long-term cycle analysis of DXY, but the latter is for another idea to be posted.
All comments are welcome as this is my very first idea on TV :)
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Like I said earlier. These rallies we are waiting to sell the Dollar. From the last bottom USD already made a little more than 7% rally. Great opportunity. Brave traders can short it now, cautious ones can wait for a little. It can go up to the 100 MA, maybe even overshooting a little just to get everyone excited about USD rally. Do not expect a trend change. The trend is down. So short it, or re-short it, or add to the existing shorts.
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Nice bearish weekly candle. 100 MA was perfect resistance. Now a long leg down is coming for several weeks and months.
Well formulated and good reasoning in this idea. For being a first idea, it's solid and well-founded in reason and thought and effort was put into it. The quality of the idea is always dependent on the quality of thought and effort. I'm excited to see if the idea Plays out well in the coming years. However, we must always be prepared that we can be wrong. Let market tell it's story.