We are also very late in the US Dollar Intermediate cycle. The price tagged the bottom of the range. We might break marginally below the August low but the rally can start any day now. Maximum 2-3 days we have in this decline.
Important news next week: Draghi talks on Monday , NFP on Friday. Who knows which will trigger the dollar rally? Draghi wants to weaken the Euro so on Monday he will talk against it. If the NFP brings a good number in hope of the summer rate hike the dollar will start to rally.
Important thing: if we make a false breakout now and break below the August low - last intermediate cycle low - I'm 100% sure that we can forget about the 100+ dollar prices here. The FED like every other central banks is printing the money like crazy and even if they not telling to us the chart is showing. So if we break below the August high then we not going to tag the upper line of this range in the next rally so the dollar will start its decline from around 98 in a new bear arket in the following years.
Indicators supporting us here also. When the dollar starts to rally will affect gold heavily. It wil be the time for gold to move down into its intermediate cycle low in the following 1-2 months.
So the idea: is going long, or holding longs here for 1-2 months. And if we break below the August low on Monday or Tuesday we have to get prepared that price is not going up to 100 only 97-98... ( But I will not stop the position if we break below the August low.)
Comment
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2015 August low is broken down. We are very close to the correction. Maybe 1 or 2 days...
Comments
kj23ca15
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I am following up your post about the WTI crude oil and looks like you're expecting a rally to 50+ in the next two weeks. But if the USD gets strong again, would the oil rally still be sustainable or get enough momentum? Thanks a lot.
Sakakikunmakio
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Its only long one candlestick... If u thought bounce from there.. Should wait correction price to test lower... If reject many time n we see filled bullish cndlestik I think have gud support there///.. Imo just 2 cent sir
Sakakikunmakio
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Good analysis... Double check/// @d1 chart... Double top eve & adam... I think the fed hold the rate till july
Scenkciler
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Do you have any suggestion about gold ? According to your Dxy idea, Gold and also Silver have to down with DXY reverse. Thank you for your sharing..
chartwatchers
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Yes...
chartwatchers
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Silver is terribly overbought. I'm not following that one but it wil not stay at these overbought leveles for long.
Retail traders will be left alone with their longs to suffer a huge drawdown next 2 weeks.