Nothing's really changed even if the FOMC did update its economic projections, revising downward its forecast for economic growth in the US (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20150917.pdf). It also cut it's PCE forecast for 2015 and 2016 (but still expects a significant pickup next year compared to 2015).
Since fundamentals don't currently provide a clear picture of how currency markets are likely to evolve in the next few months, I'm going to focus on the US dollar's technicals to help me determine what stance I should be taking this autumn. Since the end of January, the dollar hasn't done anything. The year's highs on the DXY correspond with the March 18 FOMC statement during which the Fed first revised its economic and forecast, leading to most market commentators to look beyond June for a first rate hike. The DXY is currently at the mid-point of its 2015 range, and a major support can be seen at the 93 handle.
So long as the dollar is holding this support, I will consider the dollar's trend since February as being a flat within a longer-term cyclical . In other words, I'd be looking for signs of a base being set above 93 before the end of September. If this does indeed happen, it could perhaps be the beginning of a new leg back up to 98 or even 100. The risk/reward ratio will be attractive if prices dip below 94 this week.
A break below 93 would suggest that the markets have lost confidence in a Fed rate hike over the next 12 months. While shorting a break may be feasible in the short term, I'd be wary about how the would react over time to a significant euro appreciation. The has already made it clear that its package could be increased or prolonged if necessary, and I do believe that either of the two will happen. So I would likely remain skeptical of the long-term prospects for a significant dollar depreciation even if the support at 93 breaks.