AdrianRaymondFX
Long

Dollar support to watch closely

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
116 1 7
We're still left with a lot of uncertainty as to when, and if, the Fed might tighten. While a rate hike in October or December isn't off the table, it could easily be pushed to the beginning of 2016. This depends on how US and Chinese data appears going into the end of the year as well as how stock markets perform, as any additional volatility spike could influence the Fed's stance on the US economy.

Nothing's really changed even if the FOMC did update its economic projections, revising downward its forecast for economic growth in the US (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20150917.pdf). It also cut it's PCE inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 (but still expects a significant pickup next year compared to 2015).

Since fundamentals don't currently provide a clear picture of how currency markets are likely to evolve in the next few months, I'm going to focus on the US dollar's technicals to help me determine what stance I should be taking this autumn. Since the end of January, the dollar hasn't done anything. The year's highs on the DXY             correspond with the March 18 FOMC statement during which the Fed first revised its economic and inflation forecast, leading to most market commentators to look beyond June for a first rate hike. The DXY             is currently at the mid-point of its 2015 range, and a major support can be seen at the 93 handle.

So long as the dollar is holding this support, I will consider the dollar's trend since February as being a flat within a longer-term cyclical bullish trend . In other words, I'd be looking for signs of a base being set above 93 before the end of September. If this does indeed happen, it could perhaps be the beginning of a new leg back up to 98 or even 100. The risk/reward ratio will be attractive if prices dip below 94 this week.

A break below 93 would suggest that the markets have lost confidence in a Fed rate hike over the next 12 months. While shorting a break may be feasible in the short term, I'd be wary about how the BCE             would react over time to a significant euro             appreciation. The BCE             has already made it clear that its QE             package could be increased or prolonged if necessary, and I do believe that either of the two will happen. So I would likely remain skeptical of the long-term prospects for a significant dollar depreciation even if the support at 93 breaks.
Killy_Mel
a year ago
i think its very clear with the fed - just watch chained PCE (or even CPI) y/y - as long it is below 1% there is no reason for the Fed to hike the target range
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