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#USDollar Stands At Crossroad; Favors Decline | $USD $EUR $DXY

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Friends,


A LOW-PROBABILITY RALLY:

At this point, USDollar             index has reached a significant bearish entrenchment level. Transgression of this level would open the roof up to higher-highs, starting with a probable 1.618 extension as a point of termination for a 5th wave. However, what is occurring at the moment resembles more an Elliott Wave 5th wave truncation.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Predictive/forecasting model is turning to the bear side at this moment and provides its own targets, as follow:

1 - TG-Lo = 89.27 - 11 FEB 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 88.26 - 11 FEB 2015


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

Internal to the Elliott Wave's presumed truncation is the geometric             development of a Triple-Top pattern, composed of an initial down-swing parabola, followed by a deeper-swing parabola.

This pattern is better known as a Kiss of Death ("KoD"), carrying some probability of sending price down to a level that should be lower than the lowest of the two parabola.


STRUCTURAL: ANALYSIS:

As the KoD defines its nadir at 93.26, this level aligns with a prior structural-top, this defining the resistance-turned-support ("R/S") mantra of a classic pivot level. This level could well be kept in sight by the most conservative player, although a bolder trade is offered by a richer RR ratio from the current level in which KoD completed (point-3 in purple).


OVERALL:

Standard geometry (triple-top), advanced pattern (KoD) and proprietary model are favoring a decline from this level. A break of 95.48 level should serve as a trigger to abandon any immediate bearish scenario. However, the current level offers a generous RR that would be hard to resist.

If price did roll in the direction that would breach the nadir of KoD, it would effectively define a new structural level confirming a directional bias and thus opening the floor to stilll distant prop targets.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
11 FEB 2015 - ADDENDUM: Tech-Note:

If the USD basket fell, it would thus support the $USDJPY chart, in which $USD has not been able to carve any new high:

snapshot

(Source:
Potential Reversal To 101.493 | $JPY $USD $Nikkei #BOJ #forex
)


Also, worth keeping in sight is this MONTHLY $DXY chart posted a while back, in which the predictive/forecasting model called for a rally. Now that this occurred, an interim relaxation might call the greenback to easing level before a longer-term rally should occur.

snapshot

(Source:
Is $DXY Rising From A New Cyclical Base | $USD $EUR $Gold #forex
)


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$DXY rolled as forecast; Break of 93.26 would open floor to abysmal targets:

snapshot


@tradingview #USDollar $USD $EUR $JPY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hi david, is this the maximum target around 88? previous us dollar forecast pointed way lower target
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Recluse82
2 years ago
The prior analyses on $DXY:

1 - Looking at higher target, both hit:
-
#USDollar Nears Long-Term Support | $DXY $USD $XAU #XAG


2 - Looking at loftier targets:
-
Is $DXY Rising From A New Cyclical Base | $USD $EUR $Gold #forex


There may be some interim low, such as the one around 77, but as a nominal target, it carries a lower probability. The target in the H2 chart are revised and up-to-date for that particular timeframe (retail level, i.e.: M5, M15, H1) and represent the most immediate levels of interest.

At the institutional level (daily, weekly, monthly), the ranges are simply too large to trade, unless the trader as that sort of account and risk profile. So, the larger views should be considered as "major trade winds", while the smaller frame are the trading grounds, for all intents and purposes.

David
Reply
13 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$DXY fell as forecast; Now stomped at 0.618 #fibonacci; Consolidation to 95.00 possible:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
23 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$DXY eyes yet another bullish elan; 95.23 Bears strongest; Bearish tgts intact; Invalid > 95.48:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
24 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$DXY - Significant push-back at bearish entrenchment level of 95.00; Bearish outlook:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD #usdollar
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, any updates on this one?
Reply
iefan PRO
2 years ago
DXY speculative retrace to form point 4 of Wolfe Wave....please critique David.
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - It appears solid, especially if you back it up with a larger geometry, whose 1-3 Line would run through your current 1-3 Line, whereby your point-1 would constitute its point-3, and your point-3 its quasi-point-5. At least, it appears to offer these landmarks - David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks very much David, trying to incorporate your earlier post or Nodules...... am I barking up the right tree?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Hello @iefan - That range has already been absorbed by price action "in front of it", so there is no expected impact on price. Plus, nodes and nodules are mid-segmental, not at the top or bottom of a price action.

If you are looking at one in particular, the mid-segment between points 4 and 5 offers a probable NODE or nodule, depending whether the retracement from bottom of geometry to top represents a 0.382 retracement relative to Point-4.

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David, please feel free to delete the post of mine above as I don't want to confuse the thread with inaccurate charts. I'm working on the next one :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - That's fine by me. It offers an example of do's and dont's - To keep charts arranged on topic, simply post as a reply under the corresponding chart, this will help others read that internal thread topic linearly.

David
+2 Reply
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