4xForecaster
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#USDollar Stands At Crossroad; Favors Decline | $USD $EUR $DXY

INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
Friends,


A LOW-PROBABILITY RALLY:

At this point, USDollar index has reached a significant bearish entrenchment level. Transgression of this level would open the roof up to higher-highs, starting with a probable 1.618 extension as a point of termination for a 5th wave. However, what is occurring at the moment resembles more an Elliott Wave 5th wave truncation.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Predictive/forecasting model is turning to the bear side at this moment and provides its own targets, as follow:

1 - TG-Lo = 89.27 - 11 FEB 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 88.26 - 11 FEB 2015


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

Internal to the Elliott Wave's presumed truncation is the geometric development of a Triple-Top pattern, composed of an initial down-swing parabola, followed by a deeper-swing parabola.

This pattern is better known as a Kiss of Death ("KoD"), carrying some probability of sending price down to a level that should be lower than the lowest of the two parabola.


STRUCTURAL: ANALYSIS:

As the KoD defines its nadir at 93.26, this level aligns with a prior structural-top, this defining the resistance-turned-support ("R/S") mantra of a classic pivot level. This level could well be kept in sight by the most conservative player, although a bolder trade is offered by a richer RR ratio from the current level in which KoD completed (point-3 in purple).


OVERALL:

Standard geometry (triple-top), advanced pattern (KoD) and proprietary model are favoring a decline from this level. A break of 95.48 level should serve as a trigger to abandon any immediate bearish scenario. However, the current level offers a generous RR that would be hard to resist.

If price did roll in the direction that would breach the nadir of KoD, it would effectively define a new structural level confirming a directional bias and thus opening the floor to stilll distant prop targets.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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DXY speculative retrace to form point 4 of Wolfe Wave....please critique David.
+1 Reply
@iefan - It appears solid, especially if you back it up with a larger geometry, whose 1-3 Line would run through your current 1-3 Line, whereby your point-1 would constitute its point-3, and your point-3 its quasi-point-5. At least, it appears to offer these landmarks - David
+3 Reply
iefan 4xForecaster
Thanks very much David, trying to incorporate your earlier post or Nodules...... am I barking up the right tree?https://www.
+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - That range has already been absorbed by price action "in front of it", so there is no expected impact on price. Plus, nodes and nodules are mid-segmental, not at the top or bottom of a price action.

If you are looking at one in particular, the mid-segment between points 4 and 5 offers a probable NODE or nodule, depending whether the retracement from bottom of geometry to top represents a 0.382 retracement relative to Point-4.

David
+2 Reply
iefan 4xForecaster
Thank you David, please feel free to delete the post of mine above as I don't want to confuse the thread with inaccurate charts. I'm working on the next one :)
+1 Reply
@iefan - That's fine by me. It offers an example of do's and dont's - To keep charts arranged on topic, simply post as a reply under the corresponding chart, this will help others read that internal thread topic linearly.

David
+2 Reply
24 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY - Significant push-back at bearish entrenchment level of 95.00; Bearish outlook:



@tradingview $USD #usdollar
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
ElPatron.Y 4xForecaster
Hi David, any updates on this one?
Reply
23 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY eyes yet another bullish elan; 95.23 Bears strongest; Bearish tgts intact; Invalid > 95.48:



@tradingview $USD
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
13 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
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$DXY fell as forecast; Now stomped at 0.618 #fibonacci; Consolidation to 95.00 possible:



@tradingview $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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