A LOW-PROBABILITY RALLY:
At this point, USDollar index has reached a significant entrenchment level. Transgression of this level would open the roof up to higher-highs, starting with a probable as a point of termination for a 5th wave. However, what is occurring at the moment resembles more an 5th wave truncation.
Predictive/forecasting model is turning to the side at this moment and provides its own targets, as follow:
1 - TG-Lo = 89.27 - 11 FEB 2015
2 - TG-Lox = 88.26 - 11 FEB 2015
Internal to the Wave's presumed truncation is the geometric development of a Triple-Top pattern, composed of an initial down-swing parabola, followed by a deeper-swing parabola.
This pattern is better known as a Kiss of Death ("KoD"), carrying some probability of sending price down to a level that should be lower than the lowest of the two parabola.
As the KoD defines its nadir at 93.26, this level aligns with a prior structural-top, this defining the resistance-turned-support ("R/S") mantra of a classic level. This level could well be kept in sight by the most conservative player, although a bolder trade is offered by a richer RR ratio from the current level in which KoD completed (point-3 in purple).
Standard geometry (triple-top), (KoD) and proprietary model are favoring a decline from this level. A break of 95.48 level should serve as a trigger to abandon any immediate scenario. However, the current level offers a generous RR that would be hard to resist.
If price did roll in the direction that would breach the nadir of KoD, it would effectively define a new structural level confirming a directional bias and thus opening the floor to stilll distant prop targets.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
If the USD basket fell, it would thus support the $USDJPY chart, in which $USD has not been able to carve any new high:
Also, worth keeping in sight is this MONTHLY $DXY chart posted a while back, in which the predictive/forecasting model called for a rally. Now that this occurred, an interim relaxation might call the greenback to easing level before a longer-term rally should occur.
$DXY rolled as forecast; Break of 93.26 would open floor to abysmal targets:
@tradingview #USDollar $USD $EUR $JPY
1 - Looking at higher target, both hit:
2 - Looking at loftier targets:
There may be some interim low, such as the one around 77, but as a nominal target, it carries a lower probability. The target in the H2 chart are revised and up-to-date for that particular timeframe (retail level, i.e.: M5, M15, H1) and represent the most immediate levels of interest.
At the institutional level (daily, weekly, monthly), the ranges are simply too large to trade, unless the trader as that sort of account and risk profile. So, the larger views should be considered as "major trade winds", while the smaller frame are the trading grounds, for all intents and purposes.
$DXY fell as forecast; Now stomped at 0.618 #fibonacci; Consolidation to 95.00 possible:
@tradingview $USD #forex
$DXY eyes yet another bullish elan; 95.23 Bears strongest; Bearish tgts intact; Invalid > 95.48:
$DXY - Significant push-back at bearish entrenchment level of 95.00; Bearish outlook:
@tradingview $USD #usdollar
If you are looking at one in particular, the mid-segment between points 4 and 5 offers a probable NODE or nodule, depending whether the retracement from bottom of geometry to top represents a 0.382 retracement relative to Point-4.