We have seen a very clear shift in the COVID-19 pandemic storyline. This means that the dollar Safe-Haven state will decrease over time as vaccines go into production, Countries handle a second wave without lockdowns and businesses go back on track towards the next economic recovery period that might take a couple of years.
Fundamental Backers:
1. FED Balance Sheet expansion and support for the economic outlook with Rates near 0 until 2022 are expected.
2. Brexit negotiations are on track and are key to a good recovery for the Euro Zone, this plus Euro area coordinated support has been great for the economic outlook. (GBP & EUR looking good).
3. Oil Price's negative correlation with Commodity inverse currency Dollar has given yet another backer for fundamentally strong moves for all currencies against the dollar, especially commodity-driven ones. (Check Latin American currency opportunities ;) )
4. Economic recovery and expansion bring outlook on a bullish market for the late 2020 & a strong bullrun up to 2022, perhaps we might see momentary stagnation but it does not compromise long term perspectives.
5. Trump's desire for Re-election pleads for a weaker dollar that could benefit American companies.
.... many more confirmations but the main takeaway is the fact that we might see a weaker dollar in the coming months, to years.
This is strong for Commodity based currencies and the euro especially. Let's see what happens with Brexit which is my main concern right now.
Fundamental Backers:
1. FED Balance Sheet expansion and support for the economic outlook with Rates near 0 until 2022 are expected.
2. Brexit negotiations are on track and are key to a good recovery for the Euro Zone, this plus Euro area coordinated support has been great for the economic outlook. (GBP & EUR looking good).
3. Oil Price's negative correlation with Commodity inverse currency Dollar has given yet another backer for fundamentally strong moves for all currencies against the dollar, especially commodity-driven ones. (Check Latin American currency opportunities ;) )
4. Economic recovery and expansion bring outlook on a bullish market for the late 2020 & a strong bullrun up to 2022, perhaps we might see momentary stagnation but it does not compromise long term perspectives.
5. Trump's desire for Re-election pleads for a weaker dollar that could benefit American companies.
.... many more confirmations but the main takeaway is the fact that we might see a weaker dollar in the coming months, to years.
This is strong for Commodity based currencies and the euro especially. Let's see what happens with Brexit which is my main concern right now.
