Trade details: 100/90 Put Vertical Credit Spread @ $1.85 Prob. of Max Profit = 68.04% Prob. of Max Loss = 11.34% Break-even @ $98.15 84 D.T.E.
Trade plan: Entry by oversold + support/resistance analysis Expecting old gap-up support level at $104.50 to hold after recovering from breakdown test on 12/04/17, until Mar.'18 expiration. RISKS: Break-even within the at-the-money straddle expected move by expiration; bid/ask spreads ~$0.23 on entry; earnings announcement before expiration. Expecting to adjust to minimize loss if price tests break-even level and consolidates. Approaching earnings date will be used as needed to roll spread - to take advantage of swollen IV - unless trade is a quick loser before then. Risky trade requires more days to work and to allow room for adequate adjustment.