Similar to the final pattern leading to the breakout in Mid-Feb 2012, eBay found support at its 100sma this past November on its fifth reaction low. Prices have since rebounded, consolidating in the upper range of the channel, and have closed above the 50sma during the past two weekly sessions. The body of the latest now rests flush with the upper (or just below, depending on where you place it) – see Feb 6, 2012 weekly bar. The recent upturn is confirmed by strong and a positive inflow of money. forming over the last 12 days. A close above 55.65 would signal a break out of the consolidation.
As usual, the longer the pattern, the more significant the breakout. Targets are based on the 1, 1.68, 2.68, and 3.618 FIB retracement levels of the 15 month channel. Previous breakout in February 2012 followed this pattern nicely.
Target 1 - $58
Target 2 - $63
Target 3 - $72
Target 4 - $80
Current stop at $53 – just below 50wma ($53.3). Opt to raise stop as price action develops.
I am long 2015 calls as of three days ago.