Victor.Y.F
Short

EEM market ETF is in dangerous zone

AMEX:EEM   ISHARES MSCI EMERGING INDEX FUND
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Fundamental:
1, USdollar is in a situaton could draw capitals from EEM market now. FRB is fishing with patients and let’s see which one would like to bite the hook.
2, EEM are many countries there're a lot of risks over there in the future. A capital squeezing will happen.
3, Weighted JPY colud benefit from safe haven. It’s not surprising to see JPY stronger because Yuan is devaluating now, a capital flowing.
4, If JPY is rising massively then the stock market won’t be very good but as long as USdollar is rising I think the stock market could keep trading higher range in 2016 untill it falls to correct the mature grand cycle from 2009 to 2016.
Technical:
1, Log scale trend line was broken and retested. This is very dangerous now, a wave 3 of 3 happens at any moment. Cloud be any geopolitics incident or conflict event , could be terrorism too.
2, Head shoulder PO is corresponding to WXY equal wave target. If JPY rises massively then DAX and SPX500 will retrace too, DAX could drop to 8000 and SPX 500 is correlated.
3, A zigzag correction.
4, Trade stocks with care in 2016.
Comment: Weighted JPY is trying to break 6.6666 neck line today. BOJ must act now because JPY's strenth will cancel EUR's easing effect and if it breaks this key level FRB have to rise rates hardly which could cost SPX and DAX both failing.
Comment: In fact if EEM countries don't rise rates but using exchange rates adjustment for keeping their purchase power. This dropping could be over soon.
Comment: 15th. - 16th. March BOJ will act more to save this one's ass and since today 114.20 new low is formed the major 5th. Wave the minor 1st. Wave is forming now.
Comment: The sky will fall, soon.
Comment: There is no more easing from BOJ and this chart is on the major wave down now.
Comment:
Comment: Now it's very positive for the EEM market but we have to wait for it breaking the huge triangle.
Comment: The EEM market is breaking the triangle, it's big. Pay attention to US dollar capital squeezing into EEM market, the last meal guys. Good to all Asia countries stocks markets, include the Thailand BTW.
From Sep. 2011 to the year of 2017 the gold is a compensation for stocks market, it's very interesting to see the changing of the Yen, the gold, the US dollar, Oz.
Comment: To be very very clear, the China stock market AKA the "A shares" last rising in 2015 is a selling off under Renminbi's negative interests condition as showing on chart, inverted in black color bars. With Renminbi's hiking on March 2017, the A shares is healthy now.
So it's gonna rise with the EEM together, but we must watch out the China Government 10Y bonds future market for buying it into a negative again.
Looking back the China bonds market, it's crazy, it's no administration in there...
My analysis may be the first one on TV to predict the EEM market is gonna rise.
Comment: Bullish but not the China.
Comment: Bullish, 60 then 76...
Comment: Bullish but not the China.
A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
Comment: Again, bullish but not China...China is getting worse after the meeting.
Comment: Pull back soon but still working.
Merry Christmas and happy new year!
Comment: We should've paused the hike from the FRB in 2018, it'll be ugly in the stocks. Predicted capital squeezing shall go to US dollar, Japanese Yen (limited), carry trades, interests higher currencies. Something loos like Chinese Yuan will hike in the Spring season of 2018.
Comment: Just like the chart...
The EEM market squeezing isn’t over yet. They should have hiked 3 years before, and now is perfect time to hike. But will they? By mistake again?
Comment: Just a small green, should go lower with China market 2200 area (Shanghai composite index ). The DXY should go higher in a risk off, after some weak.
Comment: We repeat the Shanghai Composite Index 2200 target and DXY higher to 98 or 102 target. From the leading index point if view, China term of trade will be worse. It looks like a ban trade to China around world will happen, the door is closing, from inside and outside. Crazy stagflation in Renminbi, and Chinese populist in charge the power.
Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
Comment: Good for the future, please wait for the Brexit is over.
Comment: Please take profits here to wait for buying opportunities after the risk off is over.
Focus long the side, maybe earlier due to the China raise the basic deposit interests soon, but not sure.
Comment: Source: yahoo
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/despite-d...
It’s too early to say it, the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests is still negative, which will make assets price from buying rise to drop. PBOC didn’t understand the negative rules.
Comment: Please focus on the long side of EEM markets. Looks like we’re back testing the break out trend line. The weighted Yen on the title chart has been predicted well. We may have a intervention window after the Brexit, by BOJ, the risk should be released.
Comment: From here, the EEM will be better after the Brexit deal done. Some tips here, wait for lower after the bad news comes out, we’re gonna pick a low price.
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