TNasr
Long

EFA: Long term price target of 77 - 85

AMEX:EFA   ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE ETF
Dear all, from the years long chart with weekly candlesticks we can see that after completing the 5/15 - 2/16 correction EFA made a triple top on April as well as September (twice) 2016 before finally breaking out in March of 2017 into a powerful 3rd wave that has since given way to a wave 4 down. With EFA currently at 66.17 Wave 4 has retraced near perfectly to within 34 cents of a 50% retracement of the magnitude of wave 3 (65.83). Please see this level within the white colored narrow Fibonacci spread which represents the span of wave 3.

Though I would not be surprised to see further decline in price I would expect support at the 61.8% retracement level; 63.56, if she dips any further than that 60.19 (represented by the horizontal magenta line) must not break otherwise the wave count would be invalidated by the trough of "wave 4" dipping into the peak of "wave 1" note that I do not expect this scenario to play out. Based on current price levels we can expect with seventy percent certainty to see a wave 5 up which will take EFA to 77.44 and potentially even as high as 85. It is also plausible we would see a truncated wave 5 based on the mellow wave 1 and the notion that wave 5s resemble the wave 1 of their respective wave count, we will see. A further dip in price will require a re-calibration of the upside targets and if necessary I will do so in a few months time.

Thanks for reading this post, criticisms and question are welcome.

Comment: Interestingly we've now seen an almost exact .618 retracement per the white central Fibonacci spread. The overall uptrend is not invalidated in anyway, EFA making a new short term low only means that out target for completion of the fifth wave will need to be re-calibrated, I will not bother doing so at the moment both b/c differences in new target levels will not be that marked and we don't know if we have even bottomed. At the end of the day so long as 60.19 holds we should still be in for an ensuing fifth wave- break that level and this set up is invalidated.
Comment: Today we literally came within 6 cents of hitting the 60.19 support and potential invalidation of the wave count. The next few days/ weeks will be VERY interesting.
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