the pattern that is forming is very similar to the pattern for the run up to earnings on Feb 8th. The current pattern is just on a smaller scale. There's a double tap at the top of the +2 Regression trend. 9 is crossing the 20 SMA to the down side. BB is starting to squeeze and RSI is facing down. There is a nice support ledge at 163.40 on the volume profile. If that fails, look for 152.65. I think that those two consolidation levels could hold you through earnings, before we see another trend to the upside. (Solid lines with arrows on the chart)
Or it could follow the last earnings and just tank and then recover (dotted line)
Assuming that 21Q3 guidance is revised downwards due to semiconductor supply constraints as was the case in 21Q2, you would expect support at $130 before another run up?
I'm trying to concilliate the technical scenario with fundamentals. I.e, TSM, the world's largest semi supplier had earnings yesterday and stated that supply contraints would remain in place until the end of the year. This would seem to imply the same scenario as 21Q2. The ENPH EVP sold +USD 5m of shares, also not a positive signal.
The current rally, having failed to break +$190 twice at least, would need to retrace in order to solidy its position before another attemp. The earnings are going to be released one week earlier, same as 21Q2.
On the positive side, there was some consolidation, there is some buyer optimism wrt solar, and the Biden admin passed (or is about to pass) the 3.5t infrastructure plan, which inevitably will have to make concessions to solar, renewables - see EU ending internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 - a hard date for full EV transition with all this implies in electric supplies, renewables, fossile fuels and so on.
Another positive fact was that BoFa restated ENPH target to $213, Goldman Sachs maintains buy rating with $202 target. Piper Sandler upgraded ENPH PT from $195 to $202, Seaport Global Securities started coverage with Neutral.
I'm trying to figure out if the price action will stabilize on $167, or if it'll find support on 155s congestion. The earnings might bring it to $150, $145 if negative, but i would expect it to find upwards momentum *fast* if that is the case due to fundamentals, some seasonality as well.
I'm trying to concilliate the technical scenario with fundamentals. I.e, TSM, the world's largest semi supplier had earnings yesterday and stated that supply contraints would remain in place until the end of the year. This would seem to imply the same scenario as 21Q2. The ENPH EVP sold +USD 5m of shares, also not a positive signal.
The current rally, having failed to break +$190 twice at least, would need to retrace in order to solidy its position before another attemp. The earnings are going to be released one week earlier, same as 21Q2.
On the positive side, there was some consolidation, there is some buyer optimism wrt solar, and the Biden admin passed (or is about to pass) the 3.5t infrastructure plan, which inevitably will have to make concessions to solar, renewables - see EU ending internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 - a hard date for full EV transition with all this implies in electric supplies, renewables, fossile fuels and so on.
Another positive fact was that BoFa restated ENPH target to $213, Goldman Sachs maintains buy rating with $202 target. Piper Sandler upgraded ENPH PT from $195 to $202, Seaport Global Securities started coverage with Neutral.
I'm trying to figure out if the price action will stabilize on $167, or if it'll find support on 155s congestion. The earnings might bring it to $150, $145 if negative, but i would expect it to find upwards momentum *fast* if that is the case due to fundamentals, some seasonality as well.