@nano80, I wouldn't have waited 5 months for confirmation and wait for all the duck's to be in a row, if I didn't want to be as certain as I could be.
nano80
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@BullsOfHymir, getting back to its lowest 95nok sounds hard to believe unless there is suddenly another oil crise Bearish market probably but still not certain there. When do you see the break down happening?
BullsOfHymir
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@nano80, I was too early. But my base case is that a global recession is du this year. I think more liquididty came in after the banking crisis last year and from China. Also the effect of high interest rates was dampened by fiscal dominance in the US. But stil this is a 42 year old bull market that have to shake off it's followers so. The yield curve is going to be right also this time. My best guess noe is that we are going to have some more blow off in tech and some short squeezes for a month or two more. And then there will be dow rest of the year. I think that in the end before this is over, there must be at least one legg down that is larger than the covid crash and in the same amount of time or a crash as large as the 08 crash but faster. A slow grind down will be stopped by the FED and Treasury as it was last year. The market then takes a nother try from a higher level untill it can crash faster and deeper than the OODA loop of the FED. That is what markets do so that is what I think is most likely.