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fringe_chartist
Sep 28, 2021 9:44 AM

Equities bull trap? 

E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME

Description

Accumulation phase(1) set a new low.
Test spring(2) is looking like a failure.
Will Distribution(3) be a new low?

The asymmetry is concerning because asymmetry implies a reversal. Shorting seems reasonable.

OR

We close(3) above the old high and the idea is invalidated
Comments
FriscoTrades
So now we go up ?
fringe_chartist
@FriscoTrades, 4480 retest seems to make the most sense as an initial move, but could go either way.

However HSI, SHCOMP, NIK225 just opened with a very large selloff, NIFTY took a huge slide yesterday, materials were looking to rally a little but took a ride from the indices.

We'll see what MSFT does tomorrow, it's sold off in increasing amounts every day for 3-4 days, so we might get a relief rally there, which is a big part of the index. But AAPL might make a similar move down, which might offset any MFST rally.

Seems like the market is leaning negative at the moment. Sentiment seems bad but could worsen as the market is very fearful, but still lacks price action to confirm the fearful sentiment.

I'd expect some sideways action and see where it goes from there. Could be a sell the rip which would confirm the current negative market conditions and sentiment, or we could close above 4480 with authority which would negate some of that negative sentiment. BUT, if we close below 4300 as a reaction to the overnight selloffs, it could get worse. Will be watching futures for some hint.

Cheers :)
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