So I am finally back into the S&P, and short at 4090. We got the 12hr uptrend I wanted, which was just barely a higher high and gives us room to head down and get a new lower low if the market wants to take a dive over the next few months.
Lots of commodity prices are rising, bond yields are going up, the value of the dollar is beginning to gain strength, volume has been nonexistent, and stocks are overheated. To me, this is a perfect storm of a sell off coming. The last piece I want to see is that income remain low, while inflationary pressure goes back up, and I think that will tip the scale into a short scenario.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4082 Downtrend (3/31/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
If we head lower, I could see it starting off with spikes down that recover back to the 4080 level several times, before we make an ultimate plunge.
The Short Position;
I'm in it, at 4090.
The Long Position;
If we break above 4090 I could see us heading into the 4100 zone. Additionally if we spike down too hard, I might go Long briefly just to come back up to neutral before the next spike down, much like I did in going Long when we were in the 3800 range.
My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, remember your risk management plan!
Lots of commodity prices are rising, bond yields are going up, the value of the dollar is beginning to gain strength, volume has been nonexistent, and stocks are overheated. To me, this is a perfect storm of a sell off coming. The last piece I want to see is that income remain low, while inflationary pressure goes back up, and I think that will tip the scale into a short scenario.
The trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4082 Downtrend (3/31/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4029 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
2Hr - 4024 Uptrend (3/27/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4058 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4073 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
If we head lower, I could see it starting off with spikes down that recover back to the 4080 level several times, before we make an ultimate plunge.
The Short Position;
I'm in it, at 4090.
The Long Position;
If we break above 4090 I could see us heading into the 4100 zone. Additionally if we spike down too hard, I might go Long briefly just to come back up to neutral before the next spike down, much like I did in going Long when we were in the 3800 range.
My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, remember your risk management plan!
Comment:
Mmm, profit stopped already and didn't come in as I had expected. PCE actually came in slightly lower than expected. Probably going to make me sit out for the moment until I see another technical reason to get involved here. Looks like the 6E is starting to jump back up also.
Comment:
For the record, I still feel strongly that we are headed towards a panic sell off... I'm just not sure what the tipping point is going to be with how the PCE data came in.