I feel it is my duty to take a general picture of the situation regarding the most important financial market in the world, the American one.
The S&P 500, after the 2008 crisis recovered in 2013, then began a real climb interrupted by some "jolts", especially the recent -30% during the first wave of the virus.
However, if we analyze the monthly chart, from 1998 to today, it is very clear that something has gotten out of hand.
The market is extremely over-extended, with + 180% from May 2013 to today.
I was hoping that this summer 2021 had brought a reversal, even a heavy one, ideally, it would have been perfect to return to the pre-pandemic level, and then "prepare" for a fruitful Christmas rally.
So it did not happen.
The market continued to rise, drugged by the FED and liquidity injections, delaying a tapering that would have served, 2 or 3 months ago.
Far be it from me to be catastrophic, but as far as stock investing is concerned, I think the elastic is really too, too, too tight.
The pullback could be more violent than you think, which is why, in addition to cryptocurrencies and commodities, I invest only and exclusively on the shares that I want to keep in my portfolio for the long term, mediating downwards and waiting for "good opportunities" to come.
And next week, after yesterday's statement by the FED, sales could begin.
September is going to be a difficult month in my opinion and it is physiological and also necessary that it be. If not, let's get ready for autumn dominated by uncertainty.
Much better a tear, violent and as fast as possible.
The pullback is absolutely necessary.
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
The S&P 500, after the 2008 crisis recovered in 2013, then began a real climb interrupted by some "jolts", especially the recent -30% during the first wave of the virus.
However, if we analyze the monthly chart, from 1998 to today, it is very clear that something has gotten out of hand.
The market is extremely over-extended, with + 180% from May 2013 to today.
I was hoping that this summer 2021 had brought a reversal, even a heavy one, ideally, it would have been perfect to return to the pre-pandemic level, and then "prepare" for a fruitful Christmas rally.
So it did not happen.
The market continued to rise, drugged by the FED and liquidity injections, delaying a tapering that would have served, 2 or 3 months ago.
Far be it from me to be catastrophic, but as far as stock investing is concerned, I think the elastic is really too, too, too tight.
The pullback could be more violent than you think, which is why, in addition to cryptocurrencies and commodities, I invest only and exclusively on the shares that I want to keep in my portfolio for the long term, mediating downwards and waiting for "good opportunities" to come.
And next week, after yesterday's statement by the FED, sales could begin.
September is going to be a difficult month in my opinion and it is physiological and also necessary that it be. If not, let's get ready for autumn dominated by uncertainty.
Much better a tear, violent and as fast as possible.
The pullback is absolutely necessary.
Lazy Bull
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor nor a CPA. These posts, videos, and any other contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. I am merely sharing my opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments.
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