The house passed the stimulus bill last night. Current thesis is that we see a melt-up into late April, followed by a crash that mimics March 2020.
Housing market and auto lending delinquencies are one of many pricks to this bubble. Look out below when you see these defaults more prevalent in main stream and social media.
An ascending wedge that pretty needs a blow off top to mark its finale, don't you think? Sort of like one of those sparkling candles that keeps re-lighting every time you blow it out? The markets tend to be irrational far beyond the date fundamental flaws are widely accepted.
huntertrades
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@SLOPolarBear, the crash that is ahead will rival 1929. The only thing holding this entire market up is false optimism of an economic recovery.
SLOPolarBear
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@huntertrades, We haven't had a massive sell-off and enduring bear market on the scale of the crash of '29 due to a great number of stabilizing forces that have been implemented in our economy. We've abandoned the gold standard. Federal deficit spending has become de facto, and the vast majority of society from insurance to pension funds to energy and transportation all have intimate ties with the stock market which did not exist 90 years ago. In essence, there are too many people who depend upon the market to expand for a prolonged contractionary event like you're describing to occur. That doesn't mean we can't have flash crashes, but we're not likely to see a market failure that results in a 20 years wait for new highs to be achieved. We learned that lesson in the 30's and 40's and have not looked back. The market has to be examined in light of quantitative easing, which nearly every leading economy in the world has implemented. But bearish minds tend to anchor to bearish views of the world, so I doubt there's anything I've said above to persuade you otherwise. I wish you luck!
huntertrades
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@SLOPolarBear, appreciate the input. I agree with much of what you are saying! I just believe that what we are witnessing is a decision point between loose monetary policy and true market value. When investors truly wake up to this divergence, a 50% pull back in the market is not unlikely @ all. Now, will we continue up from there? Probably so. From a technical stand point, above 1k on SPX is still a bullish trend. I pray we do stay above that line because, quite frankly, below it is the end of America as we know it. & I don't want that at all!! A huge pullback would weed out bogus companies that trade @ 1000X their earnings, etc. Long term, would be healthy.
timahuz
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going to at least 4400 before June
poister198
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Seems price movement today indicates a higher low, no crash is possible in the near term yet