Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on the S&P 500, via the E-Mini Futures contract. Looking at the chart, you can see that the S&P is running into lateral overhead resistance (red zone) where several pivot highs were formed. Additionally, price is getting close to what could act as the top of a downtrend channel (in blue.) When compared to the price action in 2008, leading into The Great Recession, there are a lot of similarities here, which I have covered in previous analyses. Basically, price formed a head and shoulders and broke down to the bottom of the blue channel, then rallied hard to the upside, just as it did in 2008. Now, in 2008, price never got back above the head and shoulders neckline (in pink.) Clearly, that isn't the case with today's market. Price has rallied well above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, and is now reaching major overhead resistance.
As you can see by the giant red arrow pointing downward, I think price could soon put in another major pivot high. The RSI is now in overbought territory, and the MACD is running into overhead resistance (red trendline.) Obviously, we could continue higher, but the resistance on the price chart, as well as the resistance on the indicators, indicate that the upside may be extremely limited at this point. So, I expect to see a major pivot high soon, followed by a devastating decline.
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***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Poop has been calling a bear market for a year now. I'll believe it when I start seeing a downtrend pattern.
TomPower
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@spin_cycle, agreed spin, he's not the only one , I keep listening to these guys and get buried with my shorts! Has anyone heard of TIMING IT ?????
UnknownUnicorn1375590
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@TomPower, Right! I think it'd be a better idea to wait for a couple of support levels to drop before going short!
TomPower
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@spin_cycle, well there you go then, why have we been banging the drum for shorts here for the last 2 months? To my demise I listened to them.
betabiceps
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@spin_cycle, we already are in a downtrend. the weekly level was broken in dec, now for us to make a new uptrend we must break the ath. this upward movement is a retrace
earthling
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Well here we are, S&P = 2815. I just gotta say, even if the market decides to break out here, and bust your down channel ... this TA definitely nailed the points of resistance. nice work.
Cant wait to see where the market goes from here. (I'd love to see it bust through the down channel here and test of the 2880 - 2900 territory, it's hard to go short yet...)but I'm beginning to hedge.
Do you like trading UVXY? I just bought at 39...got an order in to get more at 36... or TVIX or VIX options? What do you think is the best way to play this?
TradingShot
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Nice comparison with 2008. I went short today also and so far it is looking pretty good.