My style of trade is to look for similar historical patterns, test to see if the pattern is truly similar and project moves using fibs, bollinger, stoch rsi and ichimoku. Here I just use fibs and ichimoku and determine levels based on historical pattern. You can see how the pattern has traded so far from my calls at stocktwits.com/WhiteCollarTrader with 100% of calls posted hitting. Currently holding heavy short from 2365 with an expected initial target of 2320 area. The drop will be invalidated if we break above 2369, though I expect a HEAVY drop Sunday night through Monday. Once 2320 hits, there should be a bounce to around 2342 before proceeding to drop significantly, potentially going a tad bit below the 1.618 fib level. Don't worry, this move, like all big drops seen over the past year is yet another buy-the-dip opportunity. I will be beginning adding longs at 2297.25, the 1.414 fib level. As can be seen, 2350-2355 is expected to become VERY tough resistance for ES once we break down below it, which will likely be Sunday night open with a gap down. Once we get above that level, I expect a very bullish move to new ATH's. I will be sure to update this call as it progresses.
I noticed that the S&P 500 closed Friday with a narrow range + inside day. And certain moving averages are declining, so your bearish theory seems possible for Sunday to early EU session trading.
Overall I'm not too bearish for the Monday close, because of the "first day of the month" anomaly, which could grind the expected downtrend to a halt before it damages the entire bullish structure:
@ChartArt, If we drop quickly enough, Monday afternoon into close could be the 2320 bounce back up to 2342 area but yea that would be a quick drop. I have found I am not super good with my strategy at calling exact timing but I am able to pin-point price targets really well so it could be a much slower drop than anticipated.
Overall I'm not too bearish for the Monday close, because of the "first day of the month" anomaly, which could grind the expected downtrend to a halt before it damages the entire bullish structure:
mcoscillator.com/learning_center/kb/special_market_reports/sp_500_first_day_of_the_month_tendency/
marketwatch.com/story/markets-positive-bias-on-first-day-of-month-2010-12-01