9/19 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures

This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize.

Market Gauge

🔴 Neutral to Bearish

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Mixed near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Slightly lower
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up

World News

FOMC rate announcement set for 2 pm (EST).

Key Structures

The enduring yellow triangle is still the dominant pattern, now with adjusted support at 4465.25 and resistance at 4499.50. The 4542 level continues to be a multi-month magnet. A breakout above this level could suggest a potential upward move out of the triangle. The 4505-4496 zone remains relevant, especially after the first week of September showed some base-building in this area.

Support Levels

Supports now sit at: 4465.25 (major), 4473-4467, 4485, 4496, 4504 (major), 4445-43 (major), 4424, 4418 (major), 4400, 4388-91 (major), 4377, 4363-65 (major).

Resistance Levels

Resistances have been adjusted to: 4499.50 (major), 4512, 4515, 4525-27, 4537, 4542 (major), 4547, 4556, 4566 (major), 4578, 4580-85 (major), 4590, 4601, 4609 (major), 4620 (major), 4627, 4634, 4643, 4647-54 (major).

Trading Plan

The 4504-4496 region remains a crucial support area. Instead of entering long positions here, consider waiting for a dip to 4485 or lower and then a reclaim of yesterday's lows for a bounce play. If the market keeps sliding, 4465.25 becomes the last line of defense as it's the new triangle support.

In terms of resistance, 4499.50 and 4542 are pivotal points for potential sell-offs. If ES consolidates between 4496 and yesterday's highs, it could be a good spot to consider adding long exposure.

Wrap Up

Post-FOMC decisions, ES may still have some room for a relief rally. This scenario remains valid as long as the 4496-4504 zone holds, targeting 4542. If 4496 gives way, caution is advised, with 4465.25 serving as the ultimate support for a deeper sell-off.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions


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