S&P500 TA: Expectations VS Reality, Potential 2008 Repeat?
This devastating bear market officially began 6 months ago back in January 2022 for the S&P 500, and it's far from over, with an official recession on the horizon, potential bankruptcies, a housing bubble that's about to pop, and potential war, there is a lot of fear in the economy & market, but could there actually be some similarities between the 07-09' crash to today?
The last real recessionary bear market began back in October 2007 where it made it's first leg lower, had a relief rally to make a lower high, made it's second leg lower and when the next relief rally began many people thought it would run back to the top of the supply line near 1400, but instead the rally got cut short at around 1300, chopped around for a few weeks before the big catalysts flooded in that caused a major capitulation event from Sept to Nov 2008,
And in 2022, s&p topped out at 4800, first leg lower went to 4100, relief rally made a lower high to 4600, next leg lower made a lower low to 3800, and naturally people assumed the next relief rally would bring us to 4400+ at the top of a newly formed supply line, but so far it only got to 4200, chopped around for a few weeks, and currently at 3900 (on June 10th, 2022), and as the summer & fall drags on could lead to a mass capitulation event if/when the right catalysts start flooding in.
Coincidence? or Intentional from the market makers? only time will tell.
The last real recessionary bear market began back in October 2007 where it made it's first leg lower, had a relief rally to make a lower high, made it's second leg lower and when the next relief rally began many people thought it would run back to the top of the supply line near 1400, but instead the rally got cut short at around 1300, chopped around for a few weeks before the big catalysts flooded in that caused a major capitulation event from Sept to Nov 2008,
And in 2022, s&p topped out at 4800, first leg lower went to 4100, relief rally made a lower high to 4600, next leg lower made a lower low to 3800, and naturally people assumed the next relief rally would bring us to 4400+ at the top of a newly formed supply line, but so far it only got to 4200, chopped around for a few weeks, and currently at 3900 (on June 10th, 2022), and as the summer & fall drags on could lead to a mass capitulation event if/when the right catalysts start flooding in.
Coincidence? or Intentional from the market makers? only time will tell.