ES Commercial Net Interest Long Signal

Commercial net interest was stronger at the current yr 2015 lows than at the yr 2011 lows and yr 2007 lows before the yr 2007 ath             . Both yrs 2007 and 2011 the commercial long signal resulted with the ES making a new all time high. I don´t know if price will follow this signal again. However price history can rhyme which could thrust the ES to new all time highs before 2015 year end. As long as the dips continue to be bought, as they have been since the August lows. I would look to go long on the pullbacks with a stop to show me I am wrong.
Comment: There is another possability I am looking at. Its where the markets keep rallying into the end of the month but fail to takeout highs. Comparing a fractal of the DOW year 1937 to 1938 lows to current price. While the struture of the fractal is not the same, the time between the may 2015 high , 1937 high and august 24th low and the first drop in 1937 had an equal amount in time and % in drop from highs to lows. The current rally of august lows does not have the same structure as the bear market rally in 1937. Yet I am observing if time and % follows year 1937 bear market rally. If this setup happened I would believe the market could be setting itself up for a huge bull trap. Only time and price will show me if this is the case. close view chart
Comment: The SPX has a similar structure and % gain to date as off 2009 lows. Notes on chart.
Comment: The current aug sell off and current rally is similar so far in % and tim,e this week to date. The year 2007 rally to ath´s from lows took 9 weeks. Currently price is at it´s 9th week. A fed induced rally up to the top trendling currently at 2150ish would be short. Notes on chart.
this commercial COT indicator is only valid for ES1! or applicable for other futures such as gold, silver...etc
+1 Reply
elp jangseohee
This indicator was brought to TV by Chris Moody. Yes it works metals. I´ll post a gold chart at the bottom of the comment. I also look at the COT reports every friday afternoon. Especially the COT INDEX. It measures buying and selling on a scale of 100 to 0 I go to http://www.timingcharts.com/ in upper right cornet click on COT (I like it in white charts so I click on lite) select weekly candles since the COT is a weekly report, click on symbol, scroll down to metals, for gold and silver select (elec) Gold COMEX - (ELEC) For silver select Silver - (elec) What I look for in a buy signal for gold is when Commercial is at 100 = commercial buying is strong with Large and Specs at 0 = big traders and self directed retail traders are heavily selling. Buy signal Comm 100 Large 0 Specs 0 Sell signal Comm 0 Large 100 Specs 100 Usually gives a good signal to buy or sell gold and silver. There are not many signals. This year has given only two signals. Jauary 20th -27th, COT Index for gold was giving a sell signal. On July 21st and 28th it gave a buy signal. Although one has to see price trade into a strong level of support along with the COT Index signal to go long or short, since commercial might not catch the exact bottom. They have deep pockets where big drawdowns might not affect them as a small retail trader would be. IE April 23rd 2013, COT Index was giving a buy signal, gold did not bottom until the week of May 24th where commercial was still giving a buy signal. When COT is showing such extremes it´s usually a good signal.

ES MINI - Looking at net positioning Specs (retail) with http://www.timingcharts.com/ on the COT panel click on Comm and Large, this will only show Specs (retail) net positioning. In march and august yr 2015 Specs (retail) were the most long they had been since the crash of year 2008 and the correction of year 2011. That was huge red flag where small self directed retail traders were positioned heavily long at or near all time highs. Since the august lows Specs (retail) are flipping to short as the market rises. Just having Specs and Commercial on net positioning gives a good view too. They usually are opposite one another. August highs specs were buying, commercial was selling, enter august lows into september commercial starts buying where specs start selling. COT reports are a week behind so its looking at the past. It´s good information as it gives me an idea where money that moves market direction is being positioned.
When Commercials in gold reduce their short positions it is bullish.
+1 Reply
elp timwest
I was a metals bull 2006-2011, now I am not so much.
Notes on chart. 2019.26 was the September yr 2014 highs, now acting as resistance once again at 2020. In the October yr 2014 rally, price stopped at 2020 for two days, pulled back to 2001 and on the third day price pummled the 2020 level. The current rally of lows has a similar structure and % move in time as the october yr 2014 rally up to 2020. If I notice price pulling back to 2000/2001 and rally past 2020 I would believe the door is wide open for price to test all time highs.
Short squeeze again. It's hard to balance out the "highest margin long positions" together with the "large short interest" in the stock market. The selloff we saw in August was fundamental in many ways as well as "technical" from margin-account liquidations. We will never really know, but can only suppose. The best way to fool the most investors again would be to do whatever the least number expect - it seems that would be sideways around this price zone from the people that I compare notes with.
+1 Reply
elp timwest
You are probably 100% correct and price trades continues to trade in a range. I have noticed just about evey five days price trades into the 1950-1940 level since august lows so I believe price could do it again. It´s just what happens if price does trade back into the zone. There are a few levels I am looking for price to show me some reaction on a pullback. ES continual #s 1986 50 day ma & weekly pivot. 1957/52 yearly pivot and mbb 1948.5 the current month hwb, 1930.5 monthly pivot & the current month 61.8 Looking at BBs the top bb has opened up allowing price if it wants to rally to go on a band ride. Although the bottom bb has not turned up yet which is a mixed signal. If price gets into the middle of the chop zone, than I would think price could trade back down to the bottom of the range since there has been no real support or resistance in the range.
elp timwest
I also use google trends to try and spot extreme sentiment from the average guy on the street and not traders or investors. I believe with the internet, water coller talk has moved into the digital age. This past august the search term (stock market crash) was the highest its been since october 2008. Which showed me the average guy on the street was concerned on a stock market crash. Plus I monitor social media and follow a few youtube investing gurus. When they make multiple crash videos on the same day where their sentiment is literally (we are on the verge of death and destruction) I look to go long. It´s worked well so far. I have observed since late august their sentiment has risen to we are all going to die, buy gold and silver, run for the hills. So even if price does come down back to the bottom of the range or even make a slightly lower low, I believe the market is trying to make a bottom. I could be 100% wrong with my thinking. But I´ll continue to do this until it stops working.
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