good evening, i have somewhat of a theory for the months ahead. it isn't a very pretty one, but it rhymes well with the current worldly conditions.
what i'm bringing to the table here, is the total annihilation of anyone who loves to buy the dip; the moon boys, the yoloers, the memers - and retail as a whole.
a total call squeeze, to push unwanted participants out of this market once and for all.
lot of people got used to yolo-ing into weekly calls and having the market reward them for minimal work;
well now the market is taking,
taking everything from those who were not prepared for this.
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we've been ready for this for months now, have been talking about this correction and the reasoning behind it for quite awhile. in my initial idea, i had spy going to around 410~420; today i'm entertaining the idea that it goes a bit lower. 400 would be a solid base, perhaps a few points just beneath it to really scare the pants off of everyone.
good potential this goes on until around january, potentially longer; but it certainly doesn't have to if something changes in the real world which gives the larger players a reason to come back into the market. for now smart money exited the game, and this bleed down is just the guys who sell stonks for a loss, rather than for a gain.
personally, i love corrections - to me they bring forth a serious amount of opportunity, both in the short, mid, and long term.
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very nice pivot from the area i was eyeing, confirmed a local impulse.
my big bear idea will be invalidated if es can break out and above the bear channel with conviction ~
if that does take place, then this was a simple WXY correction, and it has been completed. until we confirm a breakout, i'm going to be anticipating the last two XZ waves ~
Speechless
Am left speechless
Thought this was a simple abc down to 4225 firing the 'warning shot' (as per Yemala: tradingview.com/chart/SPX/fPyYe9gw-SPX-2021-2022-MACD-Trend-Indicates-Major-Correction/) in the market and after that we go up even higher in the disbelief phase for another couple months until the market suddenly and completely capitulates.
This idea is far more insidious. And... perhaps more viable. Because you're right. I'm watching youtubers daily, fearlessly and compulsorily saying 'Buying the dip' over and over again now. This game has gotten out of control.
A slow and steady bleed-out would be brutal. I'd much rather have quick devastation of this entire market, so I can actually feel comfortable again about investing long-term. That being said, maybe a slow death is required given the circumstances.
Eloquent
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@ClearOpenDoor, robert pretcher made an even more daunting prediction (the guy who wrote the elliott wave theory book)
long story short, in january he predicted that by the end of 2021, spx500 will have reached a 200+ year top, and we'll enter into a 55 year bear market. its scary to think about, but i study all of his work & if it wasn't for him, i wouldn't be a chartist today. check out his thesis: youtube.com/watch?v=mPo0pt6wkdQ&t=2357s
ps. yemalas video rhymes well with this kind of significant top that pretcher is discussing
ClearOpenDoor
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@Eloquent, Holy smokes... a fibonacci time spiral pointing right. at. us
We don't know what this means exactly, but it's clear there is a paradigm shift coming. I'm a bit more optimistic. I think that this next crash will be about 40% and after THAT we go completely parabolic for the next 10 years - after which the TRUE Great Depression-like scenario comes into play. Everyone will be super nervous come 2029 but when it goes off without a hitch we'll have another two years of prosperity, people will then truly be complacent in thinking things go on forever like this, and then some time in 2031 some kind of major catastrophic event will overturn the entire economic system as we know it.
Who knows, from a crypto standpoint worth potentially tens of trillions of dollars by then the catalyst could be something as simple as the Satoshi wallets finally getting moved and drained of all their bitcoin. From an economic standpoint it could be the start of a global war, a complete implosion of a single sector in the economy which creates a domino effect, or a catastrophic event which wipes out a vast amount of infrastructure and/or short-circuits the energy grid across the entire world.
I am really hoping that we still have about 10 years left to build, grow and achieve. I mean the parabolic advancement of so many different technologies all converging together now should create a new paradigm that begins moving growth at a pace that we may not even be able to fathom. That to me is an impetus for the market to quite literally go straight up in the coming years in a way that makes the last year and a half look like (and quite literally be) just the test pump.
Am left speechless
Thought this was a simple abc down to 4225 firing the 'warning shot' (as per Yemala: tradingview.com/chart/SPX/fPyYe9gw-SPX-2021-2022-MACD-Trend-Indicates-Major-Correction/) in the market and after that we go up even higher in the disbelief phase for another couple months until the market suddenly and completely capitulates.
This idea is far more insidious. And... perhaps more viable. Because you're right. I'm watching youtubers daily, fearlessly and compulsorily saying 'Buying the dip' over and over again now. This game has gotten out of control.
A slow and steady bleed-out would be brutal. I'd much rather have quick devastation of this entire market, so I can actually feel comfortable again about investing long-term. That being said, maybe a slow death is required given the circumstances.