All in the video. I do believe one more push up into Friday is looking more likely as of now. If we have a gap up or gap down tomorrow, the plan is pretty clear, so I'll just wait to see what they want to do after 8:30. Oil is in a similar predicament, the VIX and Dollar can both drop a bit more before finding support.
Good luck!
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we have a slightly high high after the numbers and the 4 hr rsi bearish divergence. Price rally can continue but I believe we're running out of steam soon.
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vix to daily BB still possible but it doesn't have to go that low. One more lower low may be enough.
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be careful this may only be the first leg of 5
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it's possible the sell off I think is coming starts today, however we'll really need some selling stregth to get below 3950 on ES - there are 3 important MA's right next to each other there. Personally I'm going to wait and see if they can get this higher or if they can break 3950, I'll short a backtest.
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this price action is eerily similar to the period right before the covid crash. i remember thinking the market was topping and went short only to have it push incrementally higher for many more days. Extremely frustrating and many bulls got loud and many bears got quiet. Even with covid news hitting the TV, market kept on creeping up. Then one day the market started paying attention and it cracked. We're seeing something similar right now with Russia/Ukraine. The war is getting more more dangerous, but the market for now is not caring. Possibly the FED ruins the party or gives it the final push up, I don't know. Patience is key around these times. It's very easy to give up, but I'm still convinced we are getting close to the end of this countertrend rally and when it breaks it will break hard.
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both djt and iwm showing relative weakness today, some use them as a leading indicator
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right before the covid crash -daily
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and now
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so yes not exactly the same, but similar dip buying with technical weakness underlying. Covid crash had building bearsh divergence, and now we have building hidden bearish divergence.
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weekly rsi now at resistance area when the previous rallies have stopped, FWIW
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Bollinger band still higher and logically that would be the target, however there's nothing saying a pullback or selloff couldn't happen today with the personal income numbers at 830. The potential 5th wave may be done, not sure. Good luck
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its possible futures made a triangle overnight. a break above the previous high would mean another leg higher. a break below recent lows and the triangle is invalid.
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breakout and higher, still with 4hr bear divergence. VIX new low may happen today, with more bull divergences
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another lower low on the vix with daily divergence. I know everything looks bad for bears and most will likely give up soon. ES is near BB but could go farther and may just do that today.
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hidden bearish divergence getting pretty steep on the daily chart.
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oil is falling apart and is an objective short on any bounce, maybe leading the market.
@brennemanseth18 yes I know but this creeping market is still dangerous to short, soon enough.....
brennemanseth18
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Ya I just think if people are expecting a fed pivot it’s just not gonna happen. We’re nowhere near a recession and jobs numbers will never be bad enough because we’re at the beginning of a decade-long worker shortage with boomers retiring.
spuspala
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@the_sunship - seems ES Mini 4080 may come as show stopper based on previous structure forming H&S (Prev Post) I guess this is it! postimg.cc/sMCXZ9nm
the_sunship
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@spuspala I'm thinking that's right, along with upper BB and 200ma on qqq
spuspala
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@the_sunship, IMO ES to close below 3962/3955 next week will confirm the UP narration.
CuzDelux
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Ending diagonal. Next stop is high 3900s, 3976-3990, before the last rally up over 4100. Next drop just started, down tomorrow, and finish early Monday, then the fed rally into a brick wall. Market crashes when tightening eases/stops. Not sure we will get 33-3400, but should at least find low-mid 3800s. Something about these always returning to where they began. Mostly relaying info, but I like your post, here.
the_sunship
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@CuzDelux, i agree except i think this is the 5 of 5, finishing tomorrow. Monday hard down. Either way I'm collect shorts.
CuzDelux
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Will you put the link to that calendar in the comments?