Bias: short (swing) — continuing lower. A break of the previous day low lets the swing low give way, opening the path toward the next reaction zone further down.
Four zones for the swing short:
• Value-based reaction zone — my preferred entry, not necessarily the highest or best-positioned of the four; it sits between the other zones, specifically just above the first algorithmic zone's invalidation
• Three algorithmic reaction zones, one of them lower-probability — each zone's invalidation connects to the reaction zone below it, except the lower-probability zone, whose invalidation extends all the way to the swing high instead, making it the highest-risk entry of the four
Contrarian long, conditional:
Triggers only if the swing range's volume POC shifts toward the bottom of the range. Risk below the swing low; the four zones above become partial targets on the way up, swing high as final target.
Grab the chart or zoom out on the preview to see all zones.
The reasoning, if you want it.
The trend is continuing lower. The previous session reached the swing low demand and took the last reaction zone. The next reaction zone down sits at a good distance, with nothing in the way, at least from what the charts show.
Two volume profiles are in play: one for the current downtrend, one for the current swing range. Both POCs align with two of the four zones, which is what makes those two locations carry more weight.
On the invalidation structure specifically: each zone's stop cascades to the zone below it — the exception is the lowest-probability zone, where the invalidation extends all the way to the swing high instead of the nearer zone-to-zone level the others get. That's precisely why it's both lowest-probability and highest-risk — two separate problems with the same entry, not one.
The contrarian long comes from watching the swing range's volume distribution for signs of an early reversal. If the POC shifts toward the bottom of that range, it would be reason enough to take the long against the current bias, using the same four zones as a built-in partial-taking ladder on the way back up to the swing high.
Shared for educational and analytical purposes only — not financial advice or a trade recommendation. Entries, stops, and targets are shown for study, not signals to copy.
Four zones for the swing short:
• Value-based reaction zone — my preferred entry, not necessarily the highest or best-positioned of the four; it sits between the other zones, specifically just above the first algorithmic zone's invalidation
• Three algorithmic reaction zones, one of them lower-probability — each zone's invalidation connects to the reaction zone below it, except the lower-probability zone, whose invalidation extends all the way to the swing high instead, making it the highest-risk entry of the four
Contrarian long, conditional:
Triggers only if the swing range's volume POC shifts toward the bottom of the range. Risk below the swing low; the four zones above become partial targets on the way up, swing high as final target.
Grab the chart or zoom out on the preview to see all zones.
The reasoning, if you want it.
The trend is continuing lower. The previous session reached the swing low demand and took the last reaction zone. The next reaction zone down sits at a good distance, with nothing in the way, at least from what the charts show.
Two volume profiles are in play: one for the current downtrend, one for the current swing range. Both POCs align with two of the four zones, which is what makes those two locations carry more weight.
On the invalidation structure specifically: each zone's stop cascades to the zone below it — the exception is the lowest-probability zone, where the invalidation extends all the way to the swing high instead of the nearer zone-to-zone level the others get. That's precisely why it's both lowest-probability and highest-risk — two separate problems with the same entry, not one.
The contrarian long comes from watching the swing range's volume distribution for signs of an early reversal. If the POC shifts toward the bottom of that range, it would be reason enough to take the long against the current bias, using the same four zones as a built-in partial-taking ladder on the way back up to the swing high.
Shared for educational and analytical purposes only — not financial advice or a trade recommendation. Entries, stops, and targets are shown for study, not signals to copy.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.